Wall Street, Gold recovered from hot US NFP data panic low

On Thursday, Wall Street Futures, Gold slipped from soft jobless claims high on hawkish talks by the Fed, now indicating rate cuts in H2CY24, most probably from Sep’24 against present market expectations from Jun’24 (implied probability reduced from around 66% to 60%). And Dow/Nasdaq/S&P 500 Future tumbled on an escalation of Gaza War/Middle East tension after the report that Iran may be preparing an imminent drone/missile attack on Israel either directly or indirectly; Yen, US bond surged along with gold, oil to some extent; USDJPY, GBPUSD and also EURUSD slid. Dow Future tumbled from around 39750 to almost 38850 but recovered Friday as Iran may have already launched a missile attack late Thursday through its proxy Houthi.

On Friday some focus of the market was also on the NFP/BLS job report for March, which may influence the Fed for an early or delayed rate cut stance. The latest BLS establishment survey flash data (seasonally adjusted) shows that the U.S. economy/employers (public and private sectors), i.e., government and private sector jobs excluding the farming/agri industry (Non-Farm Payrolls-NFP) added +303K payroll jobs in March against downwardly revised +270K sequentially (m/m); +146K yearly (y/y), and much higher than the median market expectations of +200K.

As per the establishment survey, the change in total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment for January was revised higher by +27K to +256K, and the change for February was revised down by -5K to +270K. With these revisions, NFP employment in the last two months combined was down by +22K than previously reported (against a 2M revision of -167K in the last report).

With the latest annual and monthly revisions, the US economy added an average of +251K payroll jobs per month in 2023, against +377K in 2022, +604K in 2021, and the pre-COVID (2019) average of +168K. The 6M rolling average of NFP job addition is now around +244K against the Fed’s preference of around +200K, considering a higher labor force amid higher immigration and a higher working-age population.

Private nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. (only private establishment/business employees) added +232K payroll jobs in March from +207K sequentially (m/m) and +91K yearly (y/y), higher than the market expectations of +160K, and also above the ADP figure +184K (released Wednesday). After the latest revisions, the 2023 YTM average is now around +192K vs. the ADP average of +209K in 2023. The 6M rolling average of NFP private job addition is now around +199K vs. +125K ADP survey. The 2022 average of NFP Private Job addition was +352K vs. ADP average of +322K. Overall, the NFP and ADP private payroll job data is still divergent as the 6M rolling average is now 183K vs 139K (NFP Private vs ADP Private).

The Government payroll, i.e., employment in Federal, state, and local governments, was increased by +71K in March against +63K addition sequentially (m/m); +55K yearly (y/y), and higher than the market expectations of +40K. After the latest revision, the YTM average is now around +59K in 2023 against the 2022 average of +25K and +33K in 2021. The 6M rolling average of NFP government job addition is now around +61K. In the election year (2024); the government payroll job addition is quite upbeat and now running around the pre-COVID Jan’20 levels of +60K. In 2023-24, Government payroll addition has been quite upbeat for the last few months including December and consistently beating market expectations.

In March’24, job gains occurred in private education & health services (+88K), construction (+39K), government (+71K), and leisure & hospitality (+49K) almost at pre-COVID levels. Employment showed little or no change in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; and professional and business services.

 

Overall, private education & healthcare services were the biggest employers in the last 12 months, followed by government and leisure & hospitality (travel/tourism & hotels). The U.S. economy is primarily a service sector economy (unlike China) and the service sector is the biggest contributor to the economy, but that too is significantly dependent on millions of students, patients, and tourists from countries like China, India, and other major South Asian countries (rich & wealthy families).

As per the ADP survey, the number of private employees was around 131685K in Mar’24 against 134863K as per the BLS survey. The difference (3178K) between the two surveys (BLS-ADP) may be the estimated number of freelancers/gig workers/multiple job holders/uninsured workers, doing primary jobs full-time and secondary jobs part-time. ADP payroll data may have counted these categories of multiple private payroll job holders as one entity rather than multiple entries in the BLS establishment survey report. In this way, there was a difference in private payroll workers between the NFP and ADP surveys since the beginning.

The Household survey includes payroll employees and self-employed persons such as gig workers/freelancers, contractors, and agricultural workers. In the household survey, individuals are counted only once, even if they have more than one job (based on unverified answers across 60K household samples). In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one job are counted separately for each payroll.

As per the Household survey, which includes non-farm payroll jobs/employees and self-employed persons (including professionals, contractors, and agri workers), the U.S. economy has added +498KK employed persons in Mar’24, against the contraction of -184K sequentially (m/m) and addition of +523K yearly (y/y). The U.S. had around 161466K employed persons in Mar’24; eased from the recent life time high around 161866 scaled in Nov’23; but may soon surpass the 162K mark in the coming months, considering an average expansion of labor force/work-age population and still elevated job openings.

After annual/seasonal revisions, the YTD average number of U.S. employed persons addition per month is now at +148K in 2024 (till March) against +204K in 2023 and  +214K in 2022, while the 6M rolling average is now -14K. This is far lower/divergent than the 6M rolling average figure of +244K in the establishment survey (private + government employees without self-employed persons). Thus expect blockbuster/elevated addition of employed persons and lower headline unemployment number in the coming months (ahead of the Nov’24 election), so that figures from these two surveys (establishment and household) converge to some extent like in 2023 (251K vs 204K).

After the Dec’23 annual revision (2019-23), the 2023 YTM average of the addition of employed persons (employees and self-employed) is now around +157K, substantially lower than +265K in 2022. The YTM average of the addition of employed persons was +511K in 2021; 738K in 2020 (COVID distorted), and +169K in 2019 (pre-COVID average). The 6M rolling average is now around -14K, while considering growing labor/workforce/population, the Fed may be looking at an average of +200K/month in line with labor force and population growth amid higher immigrant workers.

For a lower wage growth inflation spiral, the U.S. economy needs comparatively cheaper higher immigrant workers, who are very glad to work in the U.S. with minimum wages around $4500-5000/month on average, which is the higher amount in their home country (local currency) due to LCU/currency devaluation with USD, very useful for maintenance of any dependent family members back home and also helping wealth creation (investment in various financial products, real estate etc.). Also, due to stable inflation (pre-COVID days), a small family/household needs a minimum of $2000-4000 as monthly regular expenses.

Also, Native American workers are not sufficient in number for low-skill work and they are not ready to work with minimum wages (unlike immigrant workers, who are ready to work in the U.S. even with minimum wages for a comparatively better standard of living than they usually enjoy, back in home country). Thus the role of USD as a global reserve currency, which is usually very strong against most of the local currencies in the EMEs/developing/poor countries (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri-Lanka-South East Asian countries and some South American and African countries) is important for goldilocks nature of U.S. labor/job market.

Most of the skilled or unskilled workers from these developing countries including professionals like Doctors, engineers are ready to move to the US/Canada/UK/Germany/EU/Europe and even China for a better standard of living and ease of finding a good opportunity to work in AEs rather than facing acute un/under-employment problem back in the home country.

In 2023, more immigrant workers from developing/poor countries supported the hot/tight U.S. labor market to cool down amid higher supplies of the labor force to match elevated job postings (vacancies). As the U.S. is mainly a service economy, labor wage is the main RM/input cost and the Fed likes to see a higher supply of affordable work/labor force (immigrants) to match elevated job demand (especially at the lower end of the pyramid). But now in the 2024 U.S. election year, the Biden admin is also uncomfortable about growing dissatisfaction among American natives (white & black) as ‘foreign immigrants’ are getting most of the low-skilled jobs at lower wages, depriving ‘original Americans’.

Trump is also now campaigning heavily against the growing number of legal/illegal immigrant workers in the U.S., which is depriving Native Americans. This is Trump’s known stance as we have seen during his last presidency (2016-20). Trump may again win the White House in Nov’24 election and all these may affect the inflow of immigrant workers in 2024-25, negative for the Fed’s goal of a goldilocks labor/job market and positive for wage inflation/headline inflation.

As per household survey data (after 2023/annual updated population estimate/control revised factor, the nominal number of the civilian labor force decreased by -175K in Jan’24 to 167276K but again increased by +150K in Feb’24 to 167426K and +469K in Mar’24 to 167895K against civilian population 267884K (+173K); participation rate 62.7% against pre-COVID participation rate around 63.3% and 2006 levels 66.4% (pre-GFC days).

The average number of additions in the labor force was around +204K against an average number of additions of employed persons +157K in 2023 (after the Dec’23 annual revision), which made the overall average in line with pre-COVID (2019) +169K. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.7% in Mar’24 from 62.5% sequentially, near the highest since Nov’23 (62.8%). The labor force participation rate was 63.3% in Feb’20 (pre-COVID). The average labor force participation rate is now around 62.6% in 2023 and also YTD-2024.

In 2024, the YTD rate of labor force addition is now +148K against +94K employed persons, while the 6M rolling average of labor force addition is now around 0K (NIL) against employed persons negative addition of -14K; i.e. average number of labor force and employed persons in the last 6-months is now almost nil/negative despite +244K addition of employees (under private & government payrolls) on an average in the same period amid increasing number of multiple job holders. In 2022, there were 15 workers for one job posting, which increased to around 18 in 2023 and is now around 19 in 2024 (till February). Thus number of job openings is now gradually decreasing per labor/worker, which may be indicating US labor/job market is gradually rebalancing towards a goldilocks state (wage growth not too hot or not too cold), and the Fed is seeking price stability.

 

As per Household survey data, the nominal number of unemployed persons decreased by -29K to 6429K in Mar’24 against 6458K sequentially (m/m) and 5866K yearly (y/y). In Mar’24, the U.S. unemployment rate eased to 3.8% from the 24-month high at 3.9% sequentially (m/m) and 3.5% yearly (y/y). The market was expecting an unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9% in Mar’24 with a lower labor force participation rate at 62.6%.

The U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) was around $34.69 in Mar’24 vs $34.57 sequentially (+0.35%) and $33.31 yearly (+4.14%); i.e. the U.S. AHE grew +4.1% yearly in Mar’24 against +4.3% sequentially, and in line with the market expectations of +4.1% (y/y). Fed as well as the White House may be looking for an average annual growth rate of AHE around 3.00% on average against its +2.0% price stability (inflation) targets (as per the pre-COVID trend) so that there are some real wage growth, which will not cause wage inflation spiral. The average AHE growth for 2023 was around +4.4% against 2024 (YTD) +4.3%.

On a sequential (m/m) basis, the AHE grew by +0.3% in Mar’24 from +0.2% in Feb’24, in line with market expectations of +0.2%. The average hourly earnings (AHE) for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls edged up +$0.12 sequentially to $34.69 in Mar’24. The Fed needs an average sequential AHE growth of around +0.2% consistently for its price stability targets, while the 2023 average was around +0.3%, almost the same in 2024 (YTD).

The Average Weekly Hours (AWH) for all employees on U.S. nonfarm payroll edged up to 34.4 hours in Mar’24 from 34.3 hours sequentially (m/m), 34.4 hours yearly (y/y) higher than the market expectations of 34.3 hours. Average Weekly Earnings (AWE=AWE*AWH) increased +0.64% to $1193.34 in Feb’24 from $1185.75 sequentially, while increasing +4.14% yearly from $1145.86. This translates to average monthly earnings (AME) of around $4773.34 in Mar’24 against $4743.00 sequentially (+0.64%) and $4583.46 yearly (+4.14%); i.e. the AME expanded +0.6% sequentially (m/m) and +4.1% yearly (y/y) in Mar’24.

The average monthly growth of U.S. AME for 2023 was around +3.90% yearly (y/y) against CPI growths +4.14% (y/y); i.e., there were still no wage-inflation spirals and real wage growth is still negative/almost nil. In Feb’24, annual real wage growth surged +0.51%, while the 6M rolling average was around +0.31% (y/y). Overall U.S. minimum/average NFP real wage growth is now turning positive as inflation is falling, which is positive for Biden ahead of Nov’24 election.

In Mar’24, if we match the number of multiple job holders (employees under non-agri payroll); i.e. the difference between Establishment and H/H survey was around 8620K In Mar’24 from around 8509K sequentially; i.e. an increase of +111K. The 2024-YTD rolling average of increase in multiple job holders is now around +348K against +94K in the number of total employed persons. The increasing number of multiple job holders may be the reason behind a drop in the total number of employed persons and an increase in headline NFP job/employee numbers in the last few months.

In brief, the Mar’24 NFP/BLS job report may be termed as upbeat, and overall U.S. labor market is still hot enough for the Fed to continue the ‘higher for longer’; i.e. restrictive policy stance at least till H1CY24 before going for any rate cuts in late 2024, most probably from Sep’24.

·         A substantial beat in the headline NFP job addition number in Mar’24 came on the back of a 2M positive revision

·         The overall 2023 average is 251K against 377K in 2022; and 276K in 2024 (YTM), while the 6M rolling average is now around +244K

·         As per the Household survey, the overall average addition of employed persons for 2023 was around +157K and +108K for multiple job holders; i.e. effective average rate +265K (157+108); the same for 2024 (YTD) is now around +442K (94+348)

·         Average growth of monthly earnings was around +3.90% in 2023 against headline inflation (CPI) +4.14%; i.e. real wage growth was negative; the same (AME) for YTD-2024 was around +3.66% (till March), while the average growth of CPI inflation was around +3.14% (till Feb’24) and real wage growth was around +0.28% for YTD-2024 (till February)

·         Overall real Average Monthly Earnings growth is still flat to negative; no meaningful wage inflation spiral till now

·         Overall, although the 6M rolling average of headline unemployment number was around 3.8%, just below the 4.0% red line, if we consider the increasing number of multiple job holders, it was almost equivalent to the decrease in the headline number of employed persons

·         Thus overall US BLS job report for Mar’24 is still hot enough  if we consider increasing the number of multiple job holders, although cooling in various parameters after the increase in immigrant workers in 2023; now the Fed is concerned about whether the supply of labor force will be adequate/enough to meet elevated job posting demands in 2024 too and going forward, considering growing domestic political compulsion over legal/illegal immigration (cheaper labor force), now affecting employment opportunity for native Americans

·         Overall the Fed will not take any rate action based on a single month BLS/NFP job and inflation report; the Fed will take into consideration the 6M rolling average of core inflation and employment data before taking any rate action

·         Looking ahead, the Fed may consider H1CY24 along with overall economic data from Aug’23 till Aug’24 before going for any rate cut cycle from Sep’24; the Fed is on hold from Aug’23 with a higher pace of QT from Sep’23; Fed may announce some definitive plan for its B/S size and QT trajectory in May’24 meeting before going for any rate cuts from Sep’24 

On Friday, after the U.S. NFP/BLS job report, Fed’s Barkin said:

·         That's a quite strong jobs report

·         Reduction in inflation has been an unbalanced mix

·         Disinflation is likely to continue, but the speed of that remains unclear

·         Hard to reconcile the current breadth of inflation with the progress the Fed needs to see for---

·         Disinflation is likely to continue, but the speed of that remains unclear

On Friday, Fed’s Logan said:

·         I need to see more of the uncertainty resolved about which economic path we’re on

·         I believe it’s much too soon to think about cutting interest rates given the upside risk to inflation

·         The FOMC should remain prepared to respond appropriately if inflation stops falling

·         I am getting increasingly concerned about the upside risk to the inflation outlook

·         The taper will also reduce the risk of going too far

·         A slower but still meaningful run-off pace will provide more time for banks and money market participants to redistribute liquidity and for the Fed to assess liquidity conditions

·         I believe it will soon be appropriate for the FOMC to decide when to slow - not stop - the runoff of our asset holdings

·         It is difficult to predict exactly when overnight reverse repo balances will be depleted

·         I am not ready to put higher trend productivity in my baseline outlook

·         The taper is unrelated to considerations of the appropriate degree of policy restriction

·         The taper should not have much effect on broader financial conditions

·         It's much too soon to think about cutting interest rates

·         There is no urgency right now for fed to cut, we have time

·         We can't wait until inflation reaches 2% to cut rates

·         The risk of cutting rates too soon is higher than being late

·         Inflation data is more important than jobs and GDP right now

On Friday, Fed’s Bowman said:

·         Cutting rates too soon risks a rebound in inflation pressures

·         It is not yet time for us to consider cutting rates

·         Eventually, the Fed will cut rates if inflation continues to ebb

·         The US central bank's policy is appropriately calibrated for the state of the economy

·         Expect slower progress in cooling inflation this year

·         I expect more declines in inflation amid a strong economy

·         Inflation faces numerous upside risks

·         Change in neutral rate could limit how much the US central bank ultimately cuts rates

·         While not likely, the Fed may have to hike again to cool inflation

·         Calls for careful deliberations over increasing bank capital rules

·         Some job market vigor tied to part-time workers and immigration

·         Progress on lowering inflation has stalled

·         I won't be comfortable cutting until disinflation returns

·         Progress on lowering inflation has stalled

·         It is critical to continue shrinking the size of the balance sheet

On Friday, the WH CEA Brainard said:

·         I think this is a really, very encouraging report, and suggests that the US economy can continue expanding                                               

Conclusions:

The Fed may go for -75 bps rate cuts in September, November, and December’24. By 18th September (Fed MPC date), the Fed will have complete data for core inflation and also unemployment/real GDP data for H1CY24 and also Aug/July’24 to have the required ‘higher confidence’ to go for rate cuts. Fed may bring down the repo rate to +4.75% by Dec’24 from present +5.50%.

The 6M rolling average of US core inflation (PCE+CPI) is now around +3.6%. Fed may cut 75 bps in H2CY24 if the 6M rolling average of core inflation (PCE+CPI) indeed eased further to +3.0% by H1CY24.

As per Taylor’s rule, for the US:

Recommended policy repo rate (I) = A+B+(C-D)*(E-B)

=1.50+2.00+ (2.60-2.00)*(4.50.00-2.00) =1.00+2+ (0.60*2.50) = 3.00+1.50=4.50% (By Dec’24)

Here:

A=desired real interest rate=1.50; B= inflation target =2.00; C= Actual real GDP growth rate for CY23=2.6; D= Real GDP growth rate target/potential=2.00; E= average core CPI+PCE inflation for CY23=4.50

Fed may announce a plan for QT tapering/closing in the May meeting and should have closed the same before going for rate cuts in H2CY24. Fed, the world’s most important central bank may not continue QT (even at a reduced pace) and go for rate cuts at the same time as QT, and rate cuts are contradictory, although Fed/Powell kept the option open, at least theoretically. Thus assuming an absurd/bizarre phenomenon, the Fed may go for -75 bps rate cuts in H2CY24, most probably from Sep’24 after deciding about the possible B/S size to ensure money market stability

Looking ahead, the Fed may keep B/S size around $6.55T, around pre-COVID levels to ensure financial/Wall Street stability along with Main Street stability (price stability and employment stability). Fed’s B/S size is presently around $7.50T (Mar’24 end). Depending upon the actual rate/reaction in the repo/funding market, the Fed may taper the QT from the present $0.095T/M to 0.050-0.075T/M for 20-12 months from May’24;i.e. Fed may end the QT by May’25-Dec’25 at B/S size around $6.55T. This is lower than the earlier market estimate of $7.00T and thus should be seen as more hawkish. Also, rate cuts along with QT (even with slower pace/tapering) should be less hawkish.

Ahead of the Nov’23 U.S. Presidential election, White House/Biden/Fed/Powell is more concerned about elevated inflation rather than the labor market; prices of essential goods & services are still significantly higher (around +20%) than pre-COVID levels, which is creating some incumbency wave (dissatisfaction) among general voters against Biden admin (Democrats).

Thus Fed is now giving more priority to price stability than employment (which is still hovering below the 4% red line) and is not ready to cut rates early as it may again cause higher inflation just ahead of the November election. Fed may hike only from Septenber’24, which will ensure no inflation spike just ahead of the Nov’24 election (as any rate action usually takes 6-12 months to transmit in the real economy), while boosting up both Wall Street and also Main Street (investors/traders/voters). Fed hiked rate last on 26th July’23 and may continue to be on hold till at least July’24; i.e. around 12 months for full transmission of its +5.25% cumulative rate hikes effect into the real economy.

Overall, the Fed’s mandate is to ensure price stability (2% core inflation), and maximum employment (below 4% unemployment rate) along with financial/Wall Street stability as well as lower borrowing costs for the government. As the US is now paying almost 15% of its tax revenue as interest on debt, the Fed will now not allow the 10Y US bond yield above 4.50-5.00% at any cost.

Bottom line:

Fed may continue QT (even at a slower pace) and go for a rate cut cycle at the same time despite these two policy actions being contradictory. Thus the Fed may go for rate cuts of -75 bps cumulatively in September, November, and December’24 for +4.75% repo rates from the present +5.50%. Fed may bring down further its B/S size from present around $7.5T to $6.55T through QT tapering by May-Dec’25 to keep minimum/ample liquidity for the US funding/money market and also to prepare itself for the next cycle of QE, whatever may be the recession excuse.

The market is now expecting 5 rate cuts (-125 bps) in 2025 against the Fed’s official 2-3 rate cuts; the Fed may go for 4 rate cuts in 2025 if Trump comes to power/White House or even under Biden. Fed’s mandate is now 2% price stability (core inflation), below 4% unemployment rate, and 3.50% US 10Y bond yield to ensure financial stability.

Market impact:

On Friday, Wall Street Futures, Gold, and US bonds slipped, while USD surged on hotter than expected US NFP/BLS job report; Gold slid from around 2300 to around 2280 but soon jumped to around 2332 on haven flow amid the concern that Iran may soon launch the retaliatory missile/drone attack on Israel in the weekend either directly or through some proxies (like Hezbollah, Houthi etc).

On Friday, Gold and oil spiked as Hezbollah leader sounded tough after the Israeli strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus. The Hezbollah Head said: “The group still has weapons and forces it has not yet used against Israel”. On the other side, Israel warned strong response if Iran indeed attacks. Apart from growing geopolitical tension over Israel-Iran and a small WWW-III, the never-ending US (USD) deficit, debt, devaluation, hopes of an early end of Fed’s QT and deeper rate cuts in 2025-26 (under President Trump?), Gold is also getting a boost from Central Bank buying like PBOC (China), RBI (India) and others amid a strategy to diversify FX assets. As per the latest data, in Mar’24, China held 72.74 million fine troy ounces of gold, up from 72.58 million ounces at the end of February, the 17th straight month of increase, resulting in the value of China's gold reserves rising to $161.07B from $148.64B.

Image: Courtesy ForexLive

On Friday, Gold, Wall Street Future also recovered from the hot NFP panic low after reports of a rare earthquake in New City and adjoining areas/states, which ignited a flow to haven led by the US bond. But Wall Street Futures also stumbled after hawkish Fed talks; the Fed is now actively discussing/debating about QT trajectory (tapering) and also preparing the market for any rate cut cycle in H2CY24. On Friday, after the hotter-than-expected US NFP/BLS job report, the FFR implied probability of a rate cut in June-July dips well below 50%, while the same for September goes higher.

On Friday, Wall Street was boosted by almost all the sectors led by communication services, industrials, techs, energy, consumer discretionary, materials, healthcare, banks & financials, real estate, utilities, and consumer staples.  Scrip-wise, Wall Street was boosted by Nvidia, Amazon, Salesforce, Caterpillar, Microsoft, American Express, Visa, Walt Disney, JPM and Chevron, while dragged by Intel, McDonald’s, Verizon, Nike and Boeing. Tesla slumped after a report that it may have abandoned the plan to manufacture low-cost EVs.

Technical trading levels: DJ-30, NQ-100 Future, and Gold

Whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (39220), now has to sustain over 39600-39800 for for a further rally to 40000/40200-40600/40700 to 42600  levels in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 39550-39200, may again fall to 38800-38600 may again fall to 38450/38295*-3795037600 and 37050-35550 levels in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (18225) now has to sustain over 18600-18750 for a further rally to 19000/19200-19450/19775 and 20000/20200 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 18550-18200/18000, NQ-100 may gain or fall to around 17700/17575*-17200/16850 and 16650/16400-15900/15650 in the coming days.

Also, technically Gold (XAU/USD: 2300 now has to sustain over 2330 for any further rally to 2355/2375-2400/2425; otherwise sustaining below 2325, may again fall to 2320/2315-2305/2300 and 2290/2270-22245/2240, and 2220/2210-2200/2195-2190/2180 and 2175/2145*, and further to 2120/2110-2100/2080-2060/2039 and 2020/2010-2000-1995/1985-1975 and even 1940 may be on the card.