US stocks wobbled on upbeat job report and Gaza war tensions

·         On Friday, Wall Street surged on the fading concern of a hard landing amid a blockbuster US job report for Sep’24

·         Fed may not cut in Nov’24 and may cut 25 or 50 bps in Dec’24 depending upon actual employment and inflation data for Oct-Nov’24; 6MRA and outlook thereof

·         Gold stumbled on fading hopes of another rate cut in Nov’24, but recovered on escalating Iran-Israel and Gaza war tensions

Wall Street Futures were under stress for the last few days as Fed Chair Powell almost poured cold water on jumbo rate cuts -50 bps as the usual norm and also made it almost clear unless there is an unusual surge in the unemployment rate in September, the Fed may not cut in November too. Overall, JOLTS and ADP payroll job data earlier this week was already indicating that NFP payroll data may come better than +150K market expectations for Sep’24.

Wall Street Futures were also under stress on hotter-than-expected ISM and S&P PMI data. There may be a risk of higher inflation amid lingering US dockworker strike and thus Fed may not cut in Nov’24 amid stalled disinflation and stable employment. Also, growing geo-political tensions in the Middle East over Israel-Hezbollah/Lebanon and Iran are dragging Wall Street Futures and aiding Gold, and Oil.

As expected by us, on Friday the US NFP/BLS flash job report for Sep’24 may be termed a blockbuster after the last two months' subdued data. The headline NFP payroll job addition was around +254K against market expectations of +150/140K, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% against the market consensus of 4.2%. Also after a few months of tepid addition, the US economy has added +430 employed persons in Sep’24. Although overall US job data for Sep’24 may be indicating a Fed pause in Nov’24, Wall Street Futures surged after some knee-jerk negative reaction amid renewed optimism about a soft landing.

In July and August, Wall Street Futures slid after a subdued/terrible US NFP job report due to the concern of a hard landing/job recession and overall economic slowdown. Although the Fed eventually cut an unusual crisis era/panic -50 bps in Sep’24 primarily based on subdued job report, Wall Street Futures initially slumped on the concern of an all-out economic recession, something which no stock market would like to see as it will eventually affect earnings/EPS despite lower borrowing costs.

On Friday (4th Oct’24), the focus of the market was on the NFP/BLS job report for Sep’24, which may help the Fed to make a firm decision about any rate cuts at the 7th Nov’24 FOMC meeting. But the Fed may also consider Sep’24 core inflation data before going for any rate cuts/hold move. Also, the Fed may consider overall average data for at least the past three/six months before any policy decision. And Fed may not take any rate cut decision in Nov’24 based on only one month of economic data, which is also not supportive of any rate cut, and that too just a few days ahead of the 20th Nov’24 US Presidential election (final polling day); Fed/Powell may risk political favoritism in favor of incumbent Democrats/White House (Biden-Harris admin).

On Friday, the latest BLS establishment survey flash data (seasonally adjusted) shows that the U.S. economy (Private + Public/Government) added +254K Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) jobs in Sep’24 against upwardly revised +159K sequentially (m/m); +246K yearly (y/y), higher than the median market expectations of +145K and the highest addition in the last six months. The US NFP employment covers public (government) and private sector employees/jobs excluding the farming/agri industry.

After the latest revisions (without considering preliminary NFP benchmark revision published on 21st Aug’24), the 6M rolling average (6MRA) of US NFP job additions was around +167K in Sep’24, slightly higher than +164K in the prior report. Also after the latest revisions, the 2024 (MTD) average of US NFP payroll job addition was around +200K against +184K in the prior report; +251K in 2023, and +377K in 2022. The Q3CY24 average payroll job addition is now around +186K against the Q2CY24 figure of +147K and +267K in Q1CY224.

Although, the Fed’s preference was around +200K in the pre-COVID era; considering a higher labor force amid higher immigration and a higher working-age population, the Fed may now prefer +225K average run rate of NFP Payroll job addition for its maximum employment mandate, while the red line may be below +175K (against pre-COVID levels of +150K). Currently, some Fed policymakers are also bracing even an average payroll addition of around +150K as a reasonable strength of the US job market after seeing subdued job reports in the last few months.

On Friday, the BLS flash data also shows the U.S. private economy (only private establishment/business employees) added +223K private payroll jobs in Sep’24 from upwardly revised +114K sequentially (m/m) and +196K yearly (y/y), higher than the market expectations of +125K, and the ADP figure +143K (released Wednesday). The Sep’24 US Private Payroll job addition of +223K was also the highest in the last six months.

After Aug’24 flash data and revisions, the 2024 (YTM) average of US private payroll job addition was around +162K against the 2023 average of +192K, the 2022 average of +352K, and the 2021 average of +571K. On the other side, the 2024 (YTM) average of ADP private payroll addition was around +150K in Sep’24; and +209K in 2023.

After the latest revisions, the 6M rolling average of NFP private job addition is now around +139K vs +160K prior report and +154K ADP survey. The divergence (difference) between NFP and ADP private payroll addition numbers is now gradually converging/ reducing amid the increasing adoption of ADP payroll processing software in private establishments. However a nominal number of private employees remains around 3K higher in BLS/NFP data than ADP (135684K vs 132589K) as all private business firms/establishments are not using ADP payroll processing software.

On Friday, the BLS Establishment survey flash data also shows the Government payroll, i.e., employment in Federal, state, and local governments added around +31K jobs in Sep’24 against upwardly revised +45K addition sequentially (m/m); +50K yearly (y/y), and higher than the market expectations of +20K.

After the latest revision, the 2024 (YTM) average for the US government payroll was around +38K against +59K in 2023, +25K in 2022, and +33K in 2021. The 6M rolling average of US NFP government job addition is now around +25K. In the election year (2024); the government payroll job addition was quite upbeat and was running around the pre-COVID levels of an average of around +50K after some slowdown in Q2CY24, mainly led by local and state governments.

In Sep’24, the US NFP payroll was boosted by job gains in private education & health services, leisure & hospitality, construction, government, retail trade, and professional & business services. In contrast, employment declined in manufacturing, transportation & warehousing. In August and September, US construction jobs got a boost after the end of the rainy season.

Overall, for the last six months, private education & healthcare services were the biggest employers, followed by government and leisure & hospitality (travel/tourism & hotels), transportation & warehousing, construction, retail/wholesale trade, professional & business services, and financial activities, while US payroll job creation was dragged by mining & logging, manufacturing, and information/techs (due to mainly AI disruption). Housing/construction is always a bright spot in the US economy.

The U.S. economy is primarily a service sector-oriented economy (unlike China) and the service sector is the biggest contributor to the economy, but that too is significantly dependent on millions of immigrants, students, patients, and tourists from developing countries like India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other major South Asian/American/African countries and even China due to better standard of living, better democracy (freedom of speech/after speech), better pay, lower cost of living (price stability) and also currency leverage. But in the last few months, AI disruption may be also cutting human jobs in the tech industry.

The US, the world’s largest economy is the land of immigrant talents and innovation. The demand for private education and healthcare is huge among not only rich Americans but also rich immigrants/visitors, especially from developing countries like India, Bangladesh, and even China. Also, big corporate families from various developing countries like India usually send their children for education in the US to not only earn degrees from world renewed institutions but also to network as children of almost all big business houses in the world including the US/UK/EU are also studying in those big US educational schools/colleges/universities/ professional institutes.

As per the latest revision in the establishment survey, the change in total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment for July was revised up by +55K to +144K, and the change for August was revised up by +17K to +159K. With these revisions, NFP employment in the last two months combined was up by +72K than previously reported (against a 2M negative revision of -86K in the last report).

With the latest monthly revisions, the US economy added an average of around +200K payroll jobs (NFP) in 2024 (YTM) against the pre-COVID (2015-19) long-term average of +187K, and the Fed’s goldilocks rate around +200K (175-225K), to keep an overall unemployment rate below 4.5% Fed red line (long term sustainable unemployment rate keeping average core inflation around +2.0% as price stability).

 

The divergence between NFP and ADP private payroll monthly job addition numbers is now almost nil on a 2024 YTM basis amid the increasing adoption of real-time ADP payroll processing software in private establishments. But, overall, a nominal number of US NFP Private Payroll employees is still higher by over 3000K in the BLS survey than ADP.

The ADP Report is based on the actual anonymized and aggregated payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. The BLS survey samples a much larger number of establishments, around one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs, compared to the ADP survey which is based on data from ADP's client companies, using ADP payroll processing software/system only. The BLS surveys about 141K businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486K individual work sites, to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls under the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.

The larger sample size of the BLS survey allows it to provide a more comprehensive and accurate representation of the overall employment situation in the US. Furthermore, the BLS survey uses more rigorous statistical methods and adjustments to account for seasonal variations, business births/deaths, and other factors that can impact population/labor force and employment data. This helps the BLS survey provide a more reliable and consistent measure of nonfarm (NFP) payroll employment than ADP.

The BLS survey is based on a sample of business establishments, while the ADP survey is based on payroll data from businesses that use ADP for payroll processing. Differences in sampling methods, sample sizes, and data collection techniques can lead to variations in the reported figures. The BLS establishment survey and the ADP private payroll survey are conducted at different times of the month, which can also contribute to variations in the reported figures.

The 2024-YTM average of the US NFP employment rate (NFP Employees/Labor Force-HH survey) was around 94.3% in Sep’24 against 93.4% in 2023 and 92.8% in 2022.

On Friday, the BLS household (HH) survey data indicated the nominal number of the US civilian labor force increased by +150K in Sep’24 to 168699K against the civilian population of 269080K (+224K); participation rate 62.7% vs 62.7% sequentially and against pre-COVID average participation rate around 63.1%; while 2006 levels was around 66.4% (pre-GFC days). The current 6MRA of labor force addition was around +187K against the Non-Institutional Civilian population (working age above 16-yrs) growth of +199K, while the labor force participation rate at 62.6%.

As per the BLS Household (HH) survey, the U.S. economy has added +430K employed persons in Sep’24, against the addition of +168K sequentially (m/m) and +50K yearly (y/y). The U.S. has 161864K employed persons in Sep’24; again at a new life time high after Nov’23. As per the BLS household survey, the average number of addition of employed persons for 2024 (YTM) was +76K in Sep’24 against the 2023 average of +157K, the 2022 average of +265K, and the long-term pre-COVID average of +178K.

The Fed may also prefer around +200K (175-225K) average as a sustainable long-term trend rate to achieve/sustain maximum employment. The US BLS HH survey includes non-farm payroll (NFP) employees (Private + Public/Govt) and self-employed persons (including professionals, contractors, and agri workers).

As per Household survey data, the nominal number of unemployed persons decreased by -280K to 6835K in Sep’24 against 7115K sequentially (m/m) and 6347K yearly (y/y). In Sep’24, the U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% from 4.2% sequentially (m/m), 3.8% yearly (y/y), below the market expectations of 4.2%, and almost at the highest of 4.3% scaled in July (since Oct’21).

The 2024 (YTM) average unemployment rate was 4.0% in Sep’24 and against the 2023 average rate of 3.6%; the current 6M rolling average of the unemployment rate was also 4.0%, still below the Fed’s 4.5% red line. Fed’s minimum unemployment may be around 3.5% on a durable basis; i.e. 96.5% employment rate, which is now around 96.0%.

Further fine prints of BLS H/H survey data indicate non-agri /non-farm (NFP) employees at 150298K (+822K) and 11566K (-392K) self-employed persons & agri workers, totaling 161864K employed persons in Sep’24. Among this, non-agri self-employed persons (small business owners, professionals, contractors, etc) were 9235K (-240K) and agri-related workers and self-employed persons at 2331K (-152K) in Sep’24.

Multiple jobholders, higher unemployment rate, and frequent divergence between BLS EST Payroll and HH surveys:

Fine details of the US NFP/BLS job report indicate YTD-2024 average non-agri/non-firm (NFP) payroll employees (PVT+GOVT) were around 158367K in the establishment survey against 149692K in the household survey. The average divergence between these two surveys (BLS establishment and household) was around +8675K for 2024 (YTM); If we deduct the number of NFP employees as per the BLS establishment survey and that of the household survey, we may have an idea of multiple job holders (employees under non-agri payroll), which is almost equivalent to this divergence.

As per the BLS HH household survey, the average number of additional payroll employees for 2024 (YTM) was +66K till Sep’24 against the 2023 average of +143K and 2022 average of +286K. This is sharply contrasting to the average addition of payroll employees as per the BLS establishment survey, which is +200K for 2024 (YTM), +251K for 2023, and +377K for 2022. The divergence between the two surveys may be explained by the increasing number of multiple job holders who may be counted twice/thrice in the establishment surveys against once in the household survey. The YTM average addition of multiple job holders was around +62K in Aug’24, almost equivalent to the average divergence number of NFP employees in EST and HH surveys.

Overall, as per BLS seasonally adjusted data, now almost 5.2% of employed persons in the U.S. are multiple job holders +agri wage holders, against 5.0% in 2023, 4.8% in 2022, and 4.6% in 2021 on average. The nominal average number of multiple job and agri wage holders was around 8422K in Sep’24 against 8085K in 2023, 7589K in 2022, and 7007K in 2021. The increasing number of multiple job holders over the years may be explained by:

·         People may be taking additional full-time/part-time jobs (WFH) to meet the increasing cost of living (still 20% higher inflation than pre-COVID times)

·         Fear of sudden layoffs/salary cuts during any financial crisis (like COVID, 2007 GFC)

·         The flexibility of WFH, higher productivity for both employees and employers (part-time/freelancers may do the same work more efficiently at lower pay than regular full-time employees),

·         Sometimes lack of experienced workers for a specifically required skill; a flexible mix of WFH/WFO (remote/onsite) may be more positive for overall labor productivity and lower inflation

In both the BLS establishment survey and the ADP private payroll survey, individuals who hold multiple payroll jobs are usually counted multiple times based on payroll processing software. The BLS survey collects data from business establishments and counts the number of employees on their payroll, regardless of whether they have one or multiple jobs. If someone holds multiple jobs and one of those jobs uses ADP for payroll processing, only the primary job with ADP would be counted in the survey; if the multiple jobs are in another company, that does not use ADP payroll software/system, he will be not counted twice.

This also explains partly about frequent divergence between ADP and BLS/EST surveys. Additionally, the BLS EST survey samples a much larger number of establishments, around one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs, compared to the limited ADP survey which is based on data from ADP's client companies, using ADP payroll processing software/system.

The increasing number of multiple job holders may be the reason behind a drop in the total number of employed persons despite an increase in headline NFP job/employee numbers in the last few months. The US BLS NFP/Establishment survey may count multiple jobs twice (if a person is doing two jobs at a time in WFH/remote mode or even physically in two shifts), while the BLS Household survey does count such multiple job holders as one employed person. The BLS Household survey includes payroll employees and self-employed persons such as professionals, gig workers/freelancers, contractors, and agricultural workers.

In the Household survey, individuals are counted only once, even if they have more than one job (based on unverified answers across 60K household samples). In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one job are counted separately for each payroll. Thus often there are divergences between the number of employees and employed person additions in a month between these two BLS surveys (Establishment and Household).

The U.S. private Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) was around $35.36 in Sep’24 vs $35.23 sequentially (+0.4%) and $34.01 yearly (+4.9%); i.e. the U.S. AHE grew +4.0% yearly in Sep24 against +3.9% sequentially, above the market expectations of +3.8% (y/y) and the highest in four months. Fed may be looking for an average annual growth rate of AHE around 3.00% on average against its +2.0% price stability (inflation) targets (as per the pre-COVID trend) so that there is some real wage growth, but may not cause wage inflation spiral. The average AHE growth for 2024 (YTM) was around +4.0% against +4.5% in 2023

On a sequential (m/m) basis, the AHE grew by +0.4% in Sep’24 against +0.5% in the previous month, and higher than the market expectations of +0.3% gain. The Fed needs an average sequential AHE growth of around +0.2% consistently for its price stability targets; while the 2024 average was around +0.3%, almost the same in 2023.

The Average Weekly Hours (AWH) for all employees on U.S. nonfarm payroll was edged down to 34.2 hours in Sep’24 from 34.3 hours sequentially (m/m), 34.4 hours yearly (y/y) and in line with the market expectations of 34.3 hours. Average Weekly Earnings (AWE=AWE*AWH) edged up +0.1% to $1209.31 in Sep’24 from $1208.39 sequentially, while increasing +3.4% yearly from $1169.94. This translates to average monthly earnings (AME) of around $4837.25 in Sep’24 against $4833.56 sequentially (+0.1%) and $4679.78 yearly (+3.4%); i.e. the US AME grew +0.1% sequentially (m/m) and +3.4% yearly (y/y) in Sep’24.

The average monthly growth of U.S. AME for 2023 was around +4.0% yearly (y/y) against CPI growths +4.1% (y/y); i.e., there were still no wage-inflation spirals and overall real wage growth was slightly negative/almost nil. But in 2024 (till September), average AME is growing by around +3.6% against average CPI inflation of +3.1%; i.e. average real wage growth in 2024 (till September) was around +0.5%.

The US needs proper fiscal stimulus/policy in place to deal with a higher number of immigrants and fresh job creations:

Overall U.S. minimum/average NFP real wage growth is now turning positive as inflation is falling, while average minimum monthly wage and other benefits; i.e. total compensation growth remains around +4.0%, which is positive for the Biden & Harris admin (Democrats) ahead of the Nov’24 election despite some uptick in the headline unemployment rate. Also, data shows that immigrants are now getting more lower-end jobs (minimum pay) than Native Americans. Although this may be due to a lack of Native Americans, willing to work at minimum pay lower end jobs,

Trump is now actively campaigning against Biden/Harris for an ‘America First’ political narrative, putting Biden/Harris (Democrats) at some disadvantage. In 2022-23, after all types of COVID era restrictions were withdrawn, there was a flood of legal/illegal immigrants; i.e. supply of more labor force and the previous imbalance between demand and supply got balanced to some extent, resulting in the softening of wage pressure, labor market and also inflation subsequently.

In brief, the Sep’24 US NFP/BLS job report may be termed a ‘blockbuster’ followed by the previous three months of ‘terrible’ job report cards in June, July, and August. But after the latest revisions and seasonal adjustments, the overall US job/labor market remains in a Goldilocks state, rather than very soft/cold or hot. Although the US labor/job market has been cooled from a very hot state in 2022-2023 and Q1CY24, the overall situation is now Goldilocks in nature and in line with pre-COVID times; but overall wage growth is still elevated and the labor market is still robust despite increasing number of immigrants/ potential workers and limited fresh jobs.

In summary, the overall US labor market may be now termed as Goldilocks rather than too soft or recessionary despite an elevated unemployment rate of around 4.0% on average and real wage growth of +0.5% (y/y) despite subdued NFP payroll addition numbers in the last few months along with nominally employed persons. There is equivalent growth in the number of multiple job holders and also labor force/job aspirants amid a rising working population/immigrants. Overall, there are still not any widespread layoffs and the uptick in unemployment number is mainly due to a higher number of multiple job holders and laborers/job aspirants/immigrants, along with limited available new job openings.

The average NFP payroll job additions as per the BLS establishment survey is now around +200K, against an average number of labor force addition +139K, employed persons +76K, multiple job holders +62K,  and self-employed + agri workers around +52K along with average real wage growth around +0.5% (minimum).

The June-Aug’24 US NFP/BLS job report may be termed terrible apparently, but it may be more due to seasonal adjustment/factors; also there was the sudden addition of a labor force addition of +420K against the normal average rate of around +200K (due to seasonal adjustments/immigrants issues) and temporary layoff 1062K against 800K average in July’24 (due to Hurricane Beryl). This time in Aug-Sep’24, as expected, the temporary layoff eased back to almost normal.

Overall, even after cooling in the last few months, the US labor/job market is still robust or now in Goldilocks mode despite elevated unemployment numbers along with the terrible addition of several employed persons. Elevated unemployment numbers may be due to the increasing number of multiple jobholders, and labor force/job aspirants rather than widespread layoffs. But at the same time, available open new jobs are declining due to various structural issues in the US; it’s not only to present higher borrowing costs or Fed stance. The Government has to act in proper policy planning and implementation along with political bipartisan/consensus between two major political parties (Democrats and Republicans).

The US as a land of immigrants & innovation, also needs a policy thrust in infra spending and consumer durable goods (manufacturing) production rather than being the ‘king’ in military equipment & airplanes (military + civil) and AI Chips in the manufacturing space. The US needs to employ more fiscal stimulus in infra (traditional & social) to create more capacity/supply for the increasing population and also the manufacturing sector with appropriate policies in place to compete with China and other manufacturing powerhouses of the world.

But the US lacks political & policy consensus as most of the time, the White House runs a minority Government without any broad policy consensus between two main political parties (Democrats & Republicans). Moreover, at present under the Biden admin, there is a distinct leadership/policy vacuum, while the lobby of military industrial manufacturing may have the ultimate control over US politics and policies.

Thus US is now too preoccupied with the Gaza and Ukraine war not only in terms of resources/funding/military equipment, but also politically and policy. The US is also too preoccupied with China's Cold War policy due to domestic political compulsion rather than its policy formulation. Although, due to the global reserve currency status of USD (as the US is the undisputed trusted biggest superpower and democracy), the US survives every financial crisis, the never-ending cycle of the higher public deficit, higher debt, and higher devaluation, Gild is getting a boost as an inflation hedge physical asset, limited in supply apart from the haven boost amid the never-ending geopolitical policy of the US (like Ukraine and Gaza war).

On Friday, Fed’s Goolsbee said:

·         The jobs report is superb

·         The end of the port strike is another piece of very good news

·         The Fed does not want to react too much to one data point

·         If we get more job reports like this, we will be more confident we are settling at full employment

·         A strong jobs report is likely to mean a strong GDP

·         We are still a ways off from having to sort out where the neutral rate is

·         We have time and runway to figure out where the settling point on the Fed policy rate is

·         We need to try to maintain conditions like they are now

·         It's hard to say where the neutral rate is but it's higher than zero

·         The bulk of FOMC participants see it in the 2.5-3.5% range; We're still a ways off from having to sort that out

·         Contacts mostly say 'steady as she goes' not a re-acceleration and not a drop-off

·         If productivity keeps booming, that implies higher growth and, a higher neutral rate but only because the economy can handle it.

·         A broad set of data shows the labor market is cooling

·         The problem with a soft landing analogy is that it implies stopping; the economy keeps going

·         If we could keep unemployment at 4% to 4.5% with inflation around 2%, that's exactly what the Fed wants, everyone should be happy

Conclusions:

Fed Chair Powell and most also other Fed policymakers almost poured cold water on further jumbo rate cuts (-50 bps) and indicated normal 25 bps rate cuts in the coming days unless the unemployment rate unexpectedly surges (say above the 4.5% red line). Moreover, Powell indicated another 25 bps rate cut in Nov’24 may not be assured unless the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumps in September.

The Next Fed meeting would be on 7th November and before that Fed may have official access to only one inflation and employment situation report for September only. Thus unless there is an unusual surge in the unemployment rate or an unexpected drop in core CPI, the Fed may pause. The US average (6MRA) core inflation (CPI+PCE) may have already stalled in Q3CY24 at around +3.2%, while the 6MRA (average) unemployment rate is around 4.1% as per available data. Thus the Fed may go for a pause and cut 25 or 50 bps in Dec’24 based on actual Q3CY24 and 6MRA data and outlook thereof.

Bottom line:

The projected Fed rate cut of -50 bps by Dec’24 not be assured as US core disinflation may have stalled in Q3CY24, while unemployment remains around 4.0%; Fed may cut -25 bps in Dec’24 after pausing in Nov’24.

Market Impact:

On Friday, Wall Street Futures surged on Chinese stimulus boost and also fading concern of a hard landing/recession. Although overall US job data for Sep’24 may be indicating a Fed pause in Nov’24, Wall Street Futures surged after some knee-jerk negative reaction amid renewed optimism about a soft landing. In July and August, Wall Street Futures slid after a subdued/terrible US NFP job report due to the concern of a hard landing/job recession and overall economic slowdown. Although the Fed eventually cut an unusual crisis era/panic -50 bps in Sep’24 primarily based on subdued job report, Wall Street Futures initially slumped on the concern of an all-out economic recession, something which no stock market would like to see as it will eventually affect earnings/EPS despite lower borrowing costs.

On Friday, Wall Street was boosted by banks & financials (higher bond yield is positive for bank’s lending model/NIM/NII), consumer discretionary, communication services, energy, techs, industrials, materials, consumer staples, and healthcare, while dragged by r4eal estate and utilities. Scrip-wise Wall Street was boosted by JPM, American Express, Boeing, Amazon, Salesforce, Goldman Sachs, Walt Disney, Caterpillar, Intel, IBM, Amgen, Apple, Tesla, and Cisco, while dragged by Hime Depot, Verizon, P&G, Coca-Cola, Merck & Co, Chevron and United Health.

Weekly-Technical trading levels: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, and Gold

Whatever the narrative, technically Dow Future (42500) has to sustain over 42700 for any further rally to 42900/43050-43250 and 43500/44000-44500/44800 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 42600/650, DJ-30 may again fall to 42400/42300-42100/42000 and 41800/41500-41200/41000* and further 40700/40300-40100/40000* and 39700/394350-39000*/38500 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (20200) has to sustain over 20400 for a further rally to 20600/20700-20800/21050* and further to 21300/21700-21900/22050 and even 23000 levels in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 20350/300, NQ-100 may again fall to 20000/19750* and 19600/19350-19100/18900 and further 18750/18550-18400/18200-17950/17600 and 17450-17300/17000 in the coming days.

Technically, SPX-500 (5780), now has to sustain over 5850 for any further rally to 5900 and 6000/6050-6100/6150 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 5825/800, may again fall to 5725-5675/5625-5600/5575*-5550/5500-5475/5450 and 5425/5390-5370/5300* and 5250/5100* and further 5050/4950*-4850/4750 in the coming days.

Also, technically Gold (XAU/USD: 2625) has to sustain over 2655 for a further rally to 2675*/2700-2725/2750 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 2650/2645, may again fall to 2625 and 2595/2590-2585/2575, may again fall to 2560*/2540-2530/2515 and 2495/2480-2470*/2425 and further 2415/2400-2390/2375 in the coming days (depending upon Fed rate cuts and Gaza/Ukraine war trajectory).