US stocks soared on Trump tax cut 2.0 hope, while Gold slid

·         Gold and oil slid as Trump 2.0 may quicken Gaza and Ukraine war ceasefire; stocks jumped on Trump’s tax cut & banking deregulation besides the anti-war stance

·         Although Trump promises no further Gaza war, in reality, US politics and policies are controlled by the deep state military & oil industry and the CIA, which does not seek permanent peace outside North America

·         EUR, GBP, and CNY slumped on Trump trade war 2.0 concern; USD jumped; DAX wobbled; export-heavy Nifty got some boost on higher USDINR and friendlier Trump ‘sarkar’ (admin); BTC stumbled

Wall Street was under stress for the last few weeks on renewed Israel-Iran geo-political tensions and the concern of Trump tantrum 2.0. In the early Tuesday European session, Wall Street Futures recovered as Nvidia surged ahead of its inclusion in the DJ-30 next week, replacing Intel. Also, Boeing, Chevron, Home Depot, and Walmart were in green, while Apple, Meta, Tesla and Amazon dragged. Late Monday, Boeing got a boost after a report that the labor union may withdraw the 7-week-long strike soon by accepting the 3rd proposal about salary increments and other issues, which comes true early Tuesday European session, helping Dow Future to have some recovery from around multi-week low. Also NQ-100 future got some pre-market boost as Palantir Technologies jumped on earnings & guidance beat, while, NXP Semiconductor tumbled on subdued guidance.

On Tuesday, Wall Street Futures also surged on Trumponomics 2.0 optimism as Trump is set to win a Trifecta (simple majority- House, Senate, and also the White House) this time, at least till Nov’26, the next mid-term election. Trump 2.0 may be more negative than Harris 1.0 for Wall Street due to policy uncertainty and Trump trade war tantrums despite the hype of more corporate tax cuts under Trump. But at the same, there may be a higher probability of an accelerated ceasefire not only for the Gaza war but also for the Ukraine war as the Trump admin may not extend Biden-era active military and direct funding support for billions of dollars in the name of so-called national security and ‘promoting democracy’.

Thus in the mid/long term, Trump 2.0 may be also negative for Gold, which has been a major beneficiary of the Gaza war in the last year. US bond yield is also gaining in anticipation of Trump 2.0 as under Trump, there may be more US fiscal deficit and debt despite Musk being the financial controller under Trump admin 2.0 to cut unnecessary government spending. USD is also gaining as a possible trade war currency under Trump 2.0.

Gold was a major beneficiary of the Gaza war; Gold jumped from around $1600 in Oct’23 to almost $2800 by Oct’24 mainly due to lingering Gaza war tensions, followed by the vicious cycle of Israel-Iran war game, even nuke rhetoric by Iran and Russia/Putin. Also, the start of Fed rate cut cycles along with synchronized global easing, increasing government/public budget deficit, higher public debt, inflation, and currency devaluation boosted Gold as a haven inflation hedge physical asset, limited in supply.

But even after considering all these factors, Gold may have run much more than its true potential as it soared almost +75% in the last year mainly due to lingering geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and subsequent destruction of the economy/currency value; also many of the destructed economy around the world like Turkey, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Iraq and even Israel, Russia, Ukraine is suffering from acute hyperinflation due to geopolitical tensions and subsequent economic sanctions/supply chain disruptions. Thus many such countries are forced to dollarize (replacing LCU with USD even daily) and relatively wealthy people/politicians are buying Gold as it will preserve value even after 1000 or more years.

Looking ahead, Israel and even Ukraine may have to agree to a permanent ceasefire by Dec’24 or even before that depending upon Trump’s actual comments/actions; President-Elect Trump is set to enter the White House as the 2nd US President, elected after a gap of 4-years of 1st term. President Trump is set to take charge of the White House on 6th Jan’25.

Thus Israel and also Ukraine may have around a 60-day window (by mid-Dec’24 before the X-mas holidays) to agree on a permanent peace/ceasefire brokered indirectly by Trump through his bellicose comments; otherwise, fund/military aid flow from the US may stop from Jan’25 as Trump has now trifecta and does not like Biden admin’s open proxy-war policy, deploying trillions of dollars in such foreign war (as proxy), thousands of miles away from US soil rather than deploying those proxy war funds in the domestic economy to increase the supply capacity of the economy and bring down inflation structurally.

For example, the US has a huge shortfall in affordable homes and also moderately smart/satellite cities (unlike China). Recent Dual Cyclones exposed that despite being a developed and world’s largest economy; the US has still significant jobless, and also homeless people. Thus the US has to invest more in social infra (education, healthcare, homes, etc) as well as traditional/transport infra (High-speed, semi-high-speed railway, industrial infra, and also EVs) to compete with China. Only a protectionist and cold war stance against China and even EU/European/other allies will not work.

The US has to invest much more in the domestic economy to be compatible/competitive with China/EM in terms of manufacturing. Also, comparatively cheaper labor, abundant industrial raw materials, especially rare earth materials, and huge industrial infra/capacity is a huge advantages for China. The US may not be next to China and thus has to accept China as a competitive partner as sales of many US MNCs are also heavily dependent on China. The same is almost true for the EU/Europe.

On early Wednesday, as highly expected, Trump made the greatest political comeback in US history to become the 47th US President, breaking many records:

·         Oldest US President for the 2nd term at 78 years of age

·         Only the 2nd US President reelected for 2nd term after 3rd attempt (after the defeat of 2nd attempt in 2020 after 1st term/2016-20)

·         Trump has already won US Presidency with more popular vote (51.0% vs 47.5% of registered votes)

·         Trump is set to win projected electoral colleges 312 vs 224 till the next mid-term election; present 277 vs 224 (simple majority mark 270)

·         Now Trump is set to win  won Senate (projected 52 vs 48 in favor of Republicans; presently 51 vs 49 in favor of Democrats) till Dec’24; presently Trump is set to win 52 vs 42 or 51 vs 41; (simple majority mark 51)

·         At present actual House result: is 205 vs 191; Trump/Republicans are set to win 221 vs 214 (simple majority mark 218)

 

Overall, Trump made an incredible political comeback from around 34% approval rating just around 6 months ago to end the election day at around 54% approval rating. This is an extraordinary comeback for a former US President who refused to accept defeat four years ago (Jan 20), caused almost a full-blown political/constitutional crisis in the 2nd largest Democracy in the world, and sparked an unprecedented violent insurrection at the U.S. Capitol Hill, surprising even third world countries; Trump was also accused of several criminal and convicted of various felony charges.

Trump made a diehard effort to become the 47th US President as 2nd term after he was defeated by Biden in the 46th US Election. Now as sitting US President, Trump will be largely immunized from any further legal proceedings against him. Trump faces multiple serious charges, like Election Interference (allegations of attempting to overturn the 2020 election results) and classified Documents Case (Charges related to the retention of classified materials post-presidency). There are also State-Level Charges against Trump (In Georgia, Trump is charged with attempting to illegally overturn election results).

Trump won despite running behind Harris in early campaign for various reasons:

·         Huge anti-incumbency wave against Biden-Harris (Democrats) admin for economic reasons (higher inflation, high cost of living) and struggling MSME sectors including local shops, businesses, etc (higher input cost)

·         Huge illegal immigration issues and general law & order situation (increasing crime/violence in the US) go against the Biden-Harris admin amid political/policy paralysis, especially by senile Biden

·         Increasing sense of a vacuum of strong political leadership at the White House under the Biden admin, which often neglected various domestic issues; for the last few years, the Biden admin has been too pre-occupied with proxy war on foreign soil (Gaza and Ukraine war); spending billions of dollars rather than investing it in the domestic US economy

·         Lack of Arab Muslim Americans' support in favor of the Biden-Harris admin for the ongoing Gaza war massacre/genocide for the pro-Israel stance of the Biden-Harris admin; most American Muslims voted for Trump this time for Trump’s balance stance; Muslims and other minorities are a significant committed vote bank in the US too

·         Most Indian Americans also supported Trump this time for economic and illegal immigration issues, hampering their income potential/scope

·         The issue of free speech and gun control also goes against the Biden-Harris admin

·         Although Harris may be in an advantageous position over Trump’s anti-free abortion stance, still there was not enough women's support as most Americans were concerned about the high cost of living and inflation, hampering their standard of living and small business

·         Public sympathy goes for Trump after two ‘failed assassination attempt’ on him during election campaign

·         The inability of Harris to present a clear roadmap to confront various economic and social issues

·         Musk support, active use of Twitter/X social media platform to propagate in favor of Trump and against Harris along with huge funding in favor of Trump; also most of the corporates may have supported Trump for the continuation of present tax cuts and the promise of further tax cuts

·         Internal issues in Democrats including Biden’s plan to contest the election for a 2nd term also go against left-leaning Democrats against right-wing Republicans (Centre left vs centre right)

Looking ahead, Trump's victory is expected to influence various aspects of the U.S. and global economy:

Economic Policy: Tax cuts

·         Trump has promised to implement tax cuts for businesses and individuals, which he argues will stimulate growth. His administration may also focus on deregulation, particularly in sectors such as energy and finance.

Hawkish Trade policy: Trump trade war 2.0 (?)

·         Trump's approach includes raising tariffs on imports, particularly from China, aiming to protect American manufacturing jobs. This could lead to increased tensions in international trade relations; although Trump claimed that China is paying billions of dollars as tariffs, actually US importers of Chinese and other foreign goods are paying those tariffs (additional import duties), not China.

·         Trump's protectionist stance could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries (like China), potentially igniting trade wars that disrupt global supply chains. Countries reliant on exports to the U.S. may face economic challenges.;  for example, China may be affected by any Trump trade war 2.0 episode, but at the same time devalued Chinese CNY (Currency) against USD may also help.

Likely Geopolitical Stability in the Middle East (Gaza war) and Eastern Europe (Ukraine war):

·         Trump's anti-war stance, especially on foreign soil direct/indirect war may help to quicken to end of the year-long Gaza war and two years long Ukraine war for a permanent ceasefire and peace plan, which may in turn also help to normalize current global trade/supply chain and ease inflation more

In an early Wednesday European session, Trump said in his victory speech:

·         I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars

·         We had no wars, for four years we had no wars. except we defeated ISIS

·         We want a strong & powerful military

·         China doesn't have what we have

·         We're gonna be paying down debt & reducing taxes

·         This is a magnificent victory for the American people

·         We made history for a reason tonight

·         We're going to help our country heal

·         This will be the golden age of America

·         America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate

·         We have taken back control of the Senate

·         It also looks like we are keeping control of the House

·         We want to have borders, security, and a strong, powerful military

·         America First, Make America Greater and healthier is our motto

·         We will rest until we have delivered a strong and prosperous America

As per foreign policy experts, despite promising Gaza and Ukraine ceasefire quickly, Trump may be even more lenient of Israeli abuses as his admin could be even more permissive of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and ongoing genocide in Gaza as eventually, US politics and policies are controlled by the military-industrial lobby and also CIA and other deep state actors. When it comes to Israel, however, the Republican ecosystem is deeply supportive of Israeli aggression due to intense lobbying by hardline Jewish groups and their proximity to Christians in the admin.

On Wednesday, in his brief statement, the Lebanese caretaker PM congratulated Trump on his win and the American people on their democratic election. He also reiterated what he had said in the past emphasizing the importance of fully implementing UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701 as there is still no agreement on how 1701 will be implemented. There is a deep distrust and skepticism in Lebanon as this war goes on, specifically concerning the US president-elect. Trump says he is a man who wants to end wars, but that skepticism sits on the premise that people believe that Trump is far closer to Netanyahu than Biden was. There is a sense that without any ceasefire, we could see an escalation between now and when Trump takes office on 20th Jan’25. The new leader of Hezbollah has also issued a defiant statement, while Ukrainian soldiers say they don’t care who is the US President as long as the weapons keep coming.

President-Elect Trump‘s impending return to the White House means he’ll want to stand up an entirely new administration from the one that served under President Joe Biden. His team is also pledging that the second won’t look much like the first one Trump established after his 2016 victory. Trump now has a 75-day transition period for various electoral and legislative formalities and also to build out his team before Inauguration Day arrives on 20th Jan’25.

One top item on the to-do list is filling around 4000 government positions with political appointees, people specifically tapped for their jobs by Trump’s team. That includes everyone from the secretary of state to the Treasury and other heads of Cabinet departments to those selected to serve part-time on boards and commissions. Around 1200 of those presidential appointments require Senate confirmation, which should be easier with the Senate now shifting to Republican control.

Overall, Trump’s policies and tax cuts may add another $10T in public debt over the next 10 years against a similar trend. Trump's 2024 campaign promises are built on both a return to his prior policies (Trump 1.0) and adaptations to new challenges, with an emphasis on economic revival, immigration control, and reducing foreign dependence. But Trump's campaign for the 2024 presidential election is marked by a series of ambitious policy proposals and promises aimed at addressing various national issues. Trump's 2024 Presidential Campaign reflects a combination of traditional Republican values with a focus on strong executive power and a populist approach. Trump’s policies are designed to resonate with his base while addressing pressing national issues as he seeks a return to the presidency.

Trump/Republicans generally prefer corporate tax cuts and no major intra/fiscal spending; Republicans (right/far right) are generally fiscally conservative rather than Democrats, which prefer a higher tax on super rich, corporates, lower taxes on the middle class, and higher fiscal/infra spending.

Trump’s policies and campaign promises for the 2024 U.S. presidential election focus on tax cuts, deregulation, immigration control, and energy independence. These proposals, if implemented, would have significant fiscal costs and implications for public debt. Based on his previous term and new campaign promises, here is an estimate of the fiscal impact:

Tax Cuts: Fiscal costs around $2T over 10 years

·         Corporate Tax Cuts: Trump has suggested reducing the corporate tax rate further from 21% (established by his 2017 tax cuts) to 15%. This would likely result in a revenue loss of around $500 billion to $1 trillion over 10 years, depending on economic growth and corporate tax compliance.

·         Middle-Class Tax Cuts: Trump has floated the idea of another round of middle-class tax cuts, similar to his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Estimates for this second round of cuts suggest a potential cost of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion over 10 years.

These tax cuts could stimulate short-term economic growth but would significantly reduce government revenue unless offset by spending cuts or economic gains. Previous analyses of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts showed that while they stimulated economic growth, they also added over $2 trillion to the national debt over a decade. His proposed tax cuts in 2024 could lead to a similar increase unless offset by cuts to spending.

Defense Spending: Fiscal costs around $0.6T over 10 years

·         Trump has called for increasing defense spending to ensure military readiness and modernization, particularly in competition with China and Russia. While exact numbers are not yet available, increasing defense budgets could cost an additional $500 billion to $700 billion over 10 years. His administration previously increased defense spending by hundreds of billions, and he may pursue a similar path in a second term.

Infrastructure Spending: Fiscal costs around $1T over 10 years

·         During his first term, Trump pushed for a $1 trillion infrastructure plan but it never fully materialized. He may revive a similar plan, promising large-scale investments in infrastructure like roads, bridges, and technology upgrades. The cost would likely be $1 trillion over 10 years, adding to public debt unless offset by private-sector partnerships or other revenue measures.

Immigration Control, Border Security, and Trump Wall: Fiscal costs around $0.2T over 10 years

·         Trump has consistently pushed for stricter immigration policies and additional funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall. He would likely seek more funding for border security and enforcement, including finishing the wall, which could cost an estimated $25 billion to $50 billion. Increased immigration enforcement and deportation programs would also require more funding, potentially adding $100 billion to $150 billion over 10 years.

Energy Independence and Deregulation: Fiscal costs are almost neutral

·         Trump’s energy policy revolves around expanding fossil fuel production, deregulation of environmental protections, and promoting oil and gas exports. While this could boost revenues from energy companies, any revenue gains would likely be offset by the environmental and regulatory costs associated with deregulation

·         Deregulation could lead to short-term economic growth but may reduce government revenue from environmental fines and fees. The fiscal cost of deregulation is harder to estimate but could lower federal revenues by $50 billion to $100 billion over a decade

Healthcare: Fiscal costs around -$0.6T over 10 years

·         Trump has expressed interest in repealing or further undermining the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which could reduce federal spending by $500 billion to $700 billion over 10 years. However, he has not outlined a specific replacement plan, and repeal could leave many Americans uninsured, creating potential costs elsewhere in the healthcare system

Social Security and Medicare shortfalls: $1.5T over 10 years

·         While Trump has vowed not to cut Social Security or Medicare, his proposed tax cuts and spending increases elsewhere may force adjustments to these programs in the long term. Without addressing long-term entitlement spending, these programs' costs are expected to balloon. This could result in a $1 trillion to $2 trillion shortfall over 10 years, particularly as Baby Boomers continue to retire.

Trade Policies and Tariffs: Fiscal costs around -$0.2T over 10 years (revenue earnings)

·         Trump’s trade policies, including tariffs on China and other countries, are aimed at protecting American industries. While tariffs can raise government revenue, they also tend to increase costs for consumers and businesses. The net fiscal impact of tariffs is uncertain but likely to have minimal effect on overall revenue.

Revenue Generation and Economic Growth

·         Trump’s economic strategy relies heavily on supply-side economics, where tax cuts are expected to spur growth, job creation, and business investment. Proponents argue that faster economic growth could offset some of the lost revenue, but most estimates suggest that the tax cuts would only partially pay for themselves, leaving a significant gap.

Debt and Deficit Impact: Fiscal costs around $7T over 10 years

·         Overall, Trump's proposed policies could add $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years. The debt-to-GDP ratio is already high due to pandemic-era spending, and additional tax cuts without significant economic gains or spending cuts could further increase the debt burden.

·         If Trump implements all of his tax cuts and spending plans without significant offsetting measures, the U.S. national debt could rise to $40 trillion by the early 2030s, up from around $33 trillion currently.

Balancing the Costs

·         Trump's economic strategy is focused on growth through tax cuts and deregulation, but this approach relies on optimistic growth projections. If the economy does not grow as expected, the public debt could balloon. Any fiscal stimulus or increased government borrowing ($7-15T over 10 years) could lead to higher interest payments, further straining the budget and may also cause higher inflation.

In conclusion, while Trump’s plan may appeal to voters seeking lower taxes and economic deregulation, it could come with substantial fiscal costs and potentially lead to an increase in the national debt unless offset by faster-than-expected economic growth or cuts to spending.

Trump's campaign promises for the 2024 presidential election are projected to have substantial fiscal implications, potentially adding significantly to the national debt, Trump's proposals are estimated to increase primary deficits by between $7 trillion and $15 trillion from FY26-35 through 2035, with a median estimate of around $10 trillion. This includes various tax cuts and spending increases, particularly in military and border security expenditures.

A major component of Trump's plan involves extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and further reducing corporate tax rates to 15%. This extension is projected to cost approximately $5.4 trillion over ten years. Trump has proposed eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, which could add about $1.3 trillion to the deficit over the same period. His plan includes a broad tax exemption for overtime pay, estimated to cost around $2 trillion in lost revenue over the next decade. While not as prominently featured as Harris's proposals, Trump has indicated support for expanding the Child Tax Credit, which could also add significant costs, although specific figures remain unclear.

To offset some of these costs, Trump has suggested imposing new tariffs on imports and cutting spending on environmental protections, which could generate approximately $3.7 trillion over ten years. However, these measures may not fully cover the anticipated deficits from his tax cuts and spending increases, Overall, Trump's campaign promises are expected to exacerbate the national debt significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of approximately $10 trillion over the next decade when accounting for all proposed tax cuts and spending initiatives. This situation presents a considerable fiscal challenge for whoever wins the 2024 election, as neither candidate has outlined a robust plan to address the growing national debt effectively.

Overall, even if Trump wins Trifecta (simple/absolute majority), and can extend his 2017 era tax cuts beyond the scheduled expiry of 2025 with fresh tax cuts, his bellicose policies and constant trade war rhetorics (like Trump 1.0) may be negative for the Wall Street. But as a trade war currency, USD may gain (already gaining in anticipation). Also, Trump's plan may add around $10T in fresh debts over 10 years; i.e. $1T every year if Trump can pass all his plans through US Congress.

Anyway, Trump’s plan is fiscally more expansive than Harris's and may cause more public deficit, debt, currency devaluation, and inflation; this is positive for Gold and negative for bonds (as the government has to issue more debts to fund deficit spending). Also, Trump trade/cold war tantrum 2.0 is negative for China, China-savvy US MNCs, techs, EMs, EU/Europe and even the US economy itself as the US industrial/ traditional infra is now far behind China. Trump’s thrust into manufacturing everything in the US will be inflationary even after considering FX factors. Thus despite Trumpflation (reflation) optimism, stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic as well as the Pacific are under stress.

But Trump’s anti-war stance may bring the Ukraine and Gaza war ceasefire earlier than Harris. Trump may also deny fresh grants to ‘the world’s smartest salesman Zelenskyy and even Israel PM Netanyahu, the world’s most smart victim card player). Also, at the same time, Musk may balance Trump’s hawkish trade war stance due to his business and other interests in China and Russia (Putin's proximity since 2022). Trump 2.0 may be less hawkish on the trade war agenda than Trump 1.0 despite in his recent election campaign, Trump promised additional tariffs, something which is ‘never seen by the world till now’. Musk may also balance fiscal deficit by reducing unnecessary/unproductive government expenses; even he may suggest cutting the government workforce including highly paid bureaucrats to improve US productivity.

The US is already now paying around 15% of Federal core tax revenue as net interest payment on Federal public debt, which is quite high if compared with China/EU’s 6% levels. Also if we consider state public debts, combined US Public debt is now above $40T for FY24. Recently, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said net interest/nominal GDP should not be over 2%, which is now actually around 2.40%. The market is also concerned about rising public deficit and debt, most of which is going for social schemes rather than infra projects like in China. This is affecting the productivity capacity of the economy and also causing inflation.

Bottom line:

Although Trump is set to win a Trifecta (simple majority House, Senate, and also White House) this time (at least till Nov’26, the next mid-term election), Trump 2.0 may be negative than Harris 1.0 for Wall Street due to policy uncertainty and Trump tantrum despite the hype of more corporate tax cut under Trump. But at the same, there may be a higher probability of an accelerated ceasefire (?) not only for the Gaza war but also for the Ukraine war as the Trump admin may not extend Biden-era active military and direct funding support for billions of dollars in the name of so-called national security and ‘promoting democracy’.

Thus Trump 2.0 may be also negative for Gold, which has been a major beneficiary of the Gaza war in the last year. US bond yield is also gaining in anticipation of Trump 2.0 as under Trump, there may be more US fiscal deficit and debt despite Musk being the financial controller under Trump admin 2.0 to cut unnecessary government spending. USD is also gaining as a possible trade war currency under Trump 2.0.

Market Impact:

On Wednesday, Wall Street Futures soared on Trumponomics optimism (tax cuts and infra stimulus) along with hopes & hypes of an early end of the Gaza and Ukraine war; Gold tumbled by almost 100 points from $2750 to $2650. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) jumped to almost $75000 on Trump's optimism. Trump and Musk favor Cryptos. Also, Tesla jumped on Trump 2.0. Musk may be inducted into the Trump cabinet in addition to an important policy-making advisory role. Banks surged on hopes of Trump deregulation including lower requirements of regulatory capital.

On late Wednesday, Wall Street was boosted by Banks & Financials, Industrials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Techs, Communication Services, and materials, while dragged by Consumer Staples, and Real Estate (as Trump may not be interested in affordable housing to solve the US housing supply crisis). Boeing was also in red after signing a fresh labor contract, which may affect its bottom line, while Trump's Cold War 2.0 policy may also affect the Chinese market in the future.

Weekly-Technical trading levels: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, and Gold

Looking ahead, whatever the fundamental narrative, technically Dow Future (42000) now has to sustain over 41800 for any recovery and further rally to 42900/43050-43250/43500* and 43700/44000-44500/44800 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 41750, DJ-30 may further fall to 41500/41400*-41200/41000* and further 40700/40300-40100/40000* and even 39700/394350-39000*/38500 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (20150) has to sustain over 20400 for a recovery to 20600/20800*-20900/21000* and further rally to 21300/21700-21900/22050 and even 23000 levels in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 20350, NQ-100 may again fall to 20000/19900 *and 19800/19700-19600/19350 to 19100/18900 in the coming days.

Technically, SPX-500 (5750), now has to sustain over 5725 for any recovery to 5935/5950*-5975 and further rally to 6000/6050-6100/6150 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 5700, may again fall to 5675/5650*-5600/5575*-5550/5500-5475/5450 and 5425/5390-5370/5300* and 5250/5100* and further 5050/4950*-4850/4750 in the coming days.

Also, technically Gold (XAU/USD: 2745) has to sustain over 2760 for a recovery to 2775/2795*-2605/2615* and further rally to 2825/2850-2875/2900 and 2925/2950-2975/3000 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 2755-2745, Gold may again fall to 2725/2700* and 2675/2650-2625/2600 and 2590/2575-2540*/2500 and further to 2470*/2440-2425/2400-2375/2330-2275 in the coming days (depending upon Fed rate cuts,  Gaza/Ukraine war trajectory and US election outcome); under Trump 2.0, Wall Street/Gold and even oil may be more influenced by Trump’s almost daily bellicose comments rather than Fed and OPEC talks).