Nifty surged on hopes of RBI rate cuts after GDP shocker

·         RBI may cut 50 bps this week based on core CPI to stay ahead of the curve rather than waiting for Feb’25 as the trend indicates only 5% growth in FY25

·         India’s average unemployment rate remains around 8% while core CPI is 3.4% in 2024 and real GDP growth may come to around 5.0% for FY25

·         Indian economy may be now stagflation scenario amid slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and elevated inflation

·         RBI shorted around $60B USDINR in the forward market quite recklessly to strengthen Rupee (INR), which may backfire and cause more imported inflation and various macro issues 

India’s benchmark stock index, Nifty closed around 24131.10 Friday (29th November), surged +0.91% as risk-on sentiment improved after some prominent BJP/Modi savvy high profile lawyers debunked the US DOJ indictment against Adani group involved in the bribing scam of various government officials for solar power projects. India’s Nifty crumbled over 10% from a recent life time high on subdued corporate earnings growth, expensive valuation, concern about the Trump trade war, elevated & sticky headline inflation, and hawkish RBI.

India’s Central Bank RBI is still not in a clear mood to cut rates, despite India’s unemployment rate remaining elevated above 8% on average for at least the last two decades and jumping above 10% even in October, while core inflation hovering well below 4.0% targets for almost last twelve months. Various high-frequency indicators are also pointing out an economic slowdown, despite the RBI/Government stance of ‘all is good’ (sab changes hai-in PM Modi’s Gujarati language)

Nifty made a low around 23463.15 on 21st November and subsequently recovered to around 24351.55 on BJP/NDA’s much better than expected win in the Maharashtra election, which may help to consolidate PM Modi’s control over Indian politics & policies; the market got some boost on hopes & hypes of blockbuster economic reforms in India by ‘strong’ Modi 3.0.

But that optimism soon faded as it became clear that the recent blockbuster/unexpected election win in Haryana and Maharashtra by BJP/NDA 3.0 without active contribution by Modi 3.0 may be highlighting the fact that BJP/RSS can also win elections without any Modi wave based on active election management, strong ground levels political organizations, huge helicopter money (Rabin Hood politics-vote for cash) and an appropriate social engineering. Thus BJP/NDA may also win the next big election in Bihar and even in Delhi and Modi 3.0 may also be extended full tenure to May’29, PM Modi may take self-retirement by Dec’25 after a ‘good performance’ post the debacle in June’24 general election.

In any way, irrespective of Modi or no Modi, the Indian political landscape is now tilting towards various small/big regional parties across India. The resultant rainbow coalition government across various states in India in support of two main political parties BJP-IND directly/indirectly is causing political & policy paralysis. Also, a weak Modi 3.0 at the Federal government and lack of an absolute majority of BJP in two houses of the Parliament (LS and RS) is causing a policy paralysis-like scenario. Even smaller regional allies of BJP and their leaders are now not in the mood to obey ‘minority’ Modi amid diminishing Modi wave and autocratic hold, which was unthinkable before Feb’24.

In brief, Modi 3.0 is now too busy with various state elections and political permutations & combinations along with ‘Operation Lotus’ (political/corruption blackmailing and washing machine policy in electoral politics); i.e. focusing too much on politics rather than economics and bold economic & social policy initiative. Although initially, PM Modi was quite liberal and flexible during his early days, he changed after the failure of Demonetization and centralized all major and even minor policy issues within PMO. Thus policy file moving delay is now a major issue, affecting the Indian economy.

Moreover, India’s Dalal Street was also under the stress of the never-ending Adani saga; although the Adani group of stocks has negligible weightage compared to RIL, HDFC banks, and other blue-chips, the fact that various allegations against Adani group also raised the quality of corporate and also political/judicial/regulatory governance in a country like India, where corruption is rampant and a way of life even for day-to-day issues.

The recent controversy surrounding the Adani Group involves serious allegations of bribery, fraud, and misconduct under U.S. laws. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have brought charges against Gautam Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani, and other senior executives.

On Saturday, Trump US President-elect Trump al threatened BRICS countries will face 100% tariffs if they dare to create a new currency to replace the mighty US dollar:

“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy. They can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”

On Friday (29th February), India’s MOSPI 1st estimate data shows India’s real GDP for Q2FY25 was around Rs.44.10T against Rs.43.64T sequentially (+1.1%) and Rs.41.86T yearly (+5.4%). India’s Q2FY25 real GDP grew around +5.4% (y/y), slowing from +6.7% in the previous quarter, below market expectations of +6.5%, and the slowest expansion since Q3FY23.

India may lose the crown of the fastest-growing major economy in the world after a prolonged period. In fact, with slowing economic growth, a rising unemployment rate and stocky/elevated inflation (CPI), the Indian economy may be now heading towards a stagflation-like scenario.

In Q2FY25, India’s real GDP was dragged by mainly subdued government final consumption expenditure (GFCF), and gross fixed capital formations (GFCF), while Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCF) remains subdued as discretionary consumer spending is slowing down due to rising cost of living )elevated & sticky inflation). Indian MOSPI does not provide separate private CAPEX data; thus the actual calculation of PDFP (Private Domestic Final Purchase; i.e. Personal Consumption Expenditure-PCE+ Gross Private Domestic Investment); i.e. core real GDP may not be possible at this stage.

But if we consider an average ratio of 20% of private capex to the overall GFCF, the PDFP for Q2FY25 was around Rs.27.85T vs 27.61 sequentially (Q/Q) and 26.30T yearly (y/y); i.e. the PDFP (core real GDP) has grown around +5.9%, more than the headline GDP growth of +5.4%, which is positive for any economy including India.

For India, generally, in every FY the government stresses completing the budgetary allocation (like infra & other spending) by the last financial QTR. Thus generally, Q4FY QTR GDP expands at a hefty pace followed by somewhat subdued or often sequentially negative next Q1 QTR of the next FY. In addition, this time there was some slowdown in government spending in H11FY25 due to the imposition of India’s general Election Model Code of Conduct (MCC).

In Q3FY25/H1FY25, India’s real GDP growth was subdued for various structural as-well-as exceptional/transient reasons:

·         No price stability despite RBI keeping rates at significantly higher/restrictive rates for almost the last two years; RBI on hold since Mar’23

·         India’s total CPI is grown around 5% on average for the last two decades (at least); i.e. price is increasing by almost 50% every five years.

·         Although India’s core CPI (unofficial data) is hovering around 3.4% on average for 2024, it was also quite elevated around 5% if we consider 2015-23

·         The recent softening of core CPI in 2024 may be also because discretionary consumer spending is softening, creating excess supply for such goods & services.

·         The higher cost of living for the middle class, especially surging food prices/inflation after the June’24 general election is affecting discretionary consumer spending

·         If we consider the essential cost of living like food, house (EMI/Rent), children's education, healthcare, transportation, and energy/electricity costs, a small middle-class family/household of 3-4 members needs at least $1200 or almost INR 100000 per month for a decent life/comfortable living; at present India’s middle-class average household income may be around INR 50000 per month; this is affecting discretionary consumer spending and overall economic activities.

·         RBI’s higher/restrictive borrowing costs for too long despite core CPI hovering much below 4% on a sustainable basis for the last few quarters is affecting India’s economic activities and GDP growth

·         India’s average unemployment (8%) and also under-employment (25%) and youth unemployment rate (45%) are very affecting discretionary consumer spending.

·         Private capex remains subdued due to India’s higher borrowing costs not only in recent times but also for almost the last two decades except GFC times.

·         India’s economic activities and GDP growth are heavily dependent on government spending and capex; excessive deficit spending or fiscal stimulus is causing higher public deficit, rising public debt, and growing LCU (local currency unit-INR) devaluation, which is causing higher inflation along with elevated imported inflation.

·         India’s average wage growth is higher than labor productivity, which is again causing higher inflation.

·         Overall productivity growth of the Indian economy remains well below nominal and even real GDP growth overheating and in turn inflation.

·         India’s elevated total CPI inflation, especially food inflation is a result of the huge demand for almost 1.45B people (almost 18% of the global population) and inadequate supply chain, infra, and logistics coupled with occasional adverse weather.

·         Indian general public, politicians, and policymakers are too busy with active/drawing room politics rather than work/business, which is also affecting the economic activity of the country; while China is building its huge network of HSR (High-Speed Railways) rapidly within a few years if not months, India is still lagging for the same in the last 10-years

·         Higher cost of doing business in India including political/admin rampant corruption and various regulations affecting not only domestic investments but also FDIs

·         Lack of sufficient investment in research & innovation along with skilled workers (unlike in China)

·         Higher energy costs and lack of big industrial infra like in China

·         Lack of modern-day labor & land reform/law

·         India’s high & very complex indirect taxes/GST on virtually all goods & services and also fuels are causing significantly higher costs of living and affecting discretionary consumer spending.

·         India’s SMEs are affected due to higher compliance costs of business, which is affecting the viability of the business itself.

·         Tech disruption/Change of business model advent of instant delivery of grocery/FMCG/Electronic goods like Swingy Instamart, Zomato etc are affecting foothills and business of big and small retailers like Reliance and also neighborhood Kirana shops; thus big retail businesses are now in stress affecting organized/formal/corporate employment for the retail sector, although there is also a surge of Swingy delivery boys earning around Rs.20K/month on an average.

·         The change in the business model for retail is also affecting consumer foothills in the shopping mall and further consumer discretionary spending.

·         Growing political & policy paralysis in India affects economic growth; politicians are not interested in vital economic data like unemployment/employment, core inflation, and retail sales like in the US or any AE; without proper economic data, no policymaker will be able to drive the economy properly.

In Q2FY25, India’s real GVA was around Rs.40.58T vs Rs.40.73T sequentially (-0.4%) and Rs.38.43T yearly (+5.6%); i.e. India's real GVA grew by around +5.6%; GVA (Gross Value Added) is production approach of measuring economic output against traditional expenditure approach; GVA+ Net taxes =GDP. India’s real net taxes are now almost 8% of real GVA/GDP, while current taxes are over 10% of current GVA/GDP. India is a service economy as almost 55% of GVA/economic output comes from the service/Tertiary sector, followed by manufacturing around 17%, utility & construction (total secondary sector around 29%), and farming & agri sector around 14% coupled with mining & quarrying (primary sector ~16%).

India's GDP/GVA growth has shown a subdued performance recently, with a notable slowdown in Q2 FY25 (July–September 2024) and H1 FY25 (April–September 2024). India's GDP growth for Q2 FY25 has been reported at 5.4%, marking a significant slowdown from 8.1% in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year (FY) and the lowest growth rate since Q3FY23; GVA is going down as producers are on the back foot due to subdued demand. Maruti's growth trajectory may be a leading economic indicator in India representing middle-class economic conditions.

India’s real GVA for Q2FY25 was reported at 5.6%, down from 7.7% in Q2FY24, indicating that while some sectors like agriculture showed resilience with a growth rate of 3.5%, others like manufacturing and mining struggled significantly. India is losing manufacturing competitiveness rapidly to China despite lower labor costs. This may be due to the higher cost of doing business in India, higher input costs including energy/electricity, and various regulatory hurdles.

Some of the primary reasons behind India’s economic slowdown:

·         Manufacturing Slowdown: Manufacturing growth fell sharply to 3.6%, compared to double-digit growth in prior periods. The manufacturing sector experienced a dramatic slowdown, with growth plummeting to 2.2% from 14.3% in Q2FY24. This decline reflects broader issues within corporate performance, as many companies reported their weakest quarterly results in over four years amid subdued domestic and external demand.

·         Mining and Other Sectors: The mining sector faced a contraction of -0.1%, contrasting sharply with previous growth rates and contributing to the overall economic downturn. Additionally, the electricity and utilities sector also saw reduced growth, indicating a broader decline in industrial activity.

·         Agriculture and Services: Agriculture grew at 3.5%, recovering from previous low growth, while the services sector grew at 7.1%, providing some stability

·         High food & fuel Inflation Impact: Elevated food and fuel (both edible and transportation) prices weakened urban discretionary consumption, further dampening growth

·         Sectoral Challenges: Persistent challenges in industrial growth and slower credit uptakes contributed to the moderation. Meanwhile, the services and agriculture sectors offered partial support.

·         External Environment: Global uncertainties, such as geopolitical tensions, tighter monetary policies, and subdued exports, affected industrial and manufacturing performance in India; EU/Europe is now under a recession-like situation affecting Indian exports (both goods & services). Growing global economic uncertainties and geopolitical & trade fragmentations have negatively impacted India’s export performance and investment sentiment, further dampening economic activity during this period, while imports are growing, especially from China for various consumer and industrial goods.

·         Domestic Constraints: Weak labor market/high unemployment/under-employment, elevated inflation, higher borrowing costs, and cautious consumer sentiment limited domestic demand

·         While the RBI projects a full-year real GDP growth of around 6.5-6.8% for FY25, achieving this will require a stronger recovery in H2FY25. Structural reforms and policy interventions are expected to stabilize the industrial sector and boost growth.

·         Urban Recession/ Consumption Decline: The primary driver behind the subdued GDP growth is weak private consumption, particularly in urban areas. High food inflation, which surged to 10.87% in October, has diminished household purchasing power, leading to reduced discretionary spending.

·         Rising Borrowing Costs and Tighter Lending Norms by Banks & financials: Increased borrowing costs and tighter credit norms (after the RBI warning) have also constrained consumer spending, contributing to the overall economic slowdown

Despite these challenges, the market/policymakers remain cautiously optimistic about a potential rebound in GDP growth during H2FY25, driven by expected increases in government spending/capex and improvements in consumption patterns during festive seasons (October-March). However, ongoing inflationary pressures and weaker real earnings may continue to pose risks to sustained economic recovery moving forward.

As per the current trend and considering various pros & cons, India’s real GDP may grow by around +4.7% and +6.8% in Q3 & Q4FY25, which will translate into FY25 real GDP around Rs.183T against Rs.174T in FY24, which would be around +5.0% real GDP growth; present TTM real GDP is now around Rs.179T.

In terms of the average USDINR-FX rate, India’s real GDP was around $2.1T in FY24 against $1.7T in FY12; i.e. an average growth of around 1.2% as USDINR also appreciated by around 5.3%. India’s nominal GDP was around $3.6T in FY24 against $1.8T in FY12; i.e. grew at an average growth of around 6.9%. At current TTM real GDP is around Rs.179T and average USDINR 84.50, in USD terms, India’s real GDP also stands around $2.1T, almost the same for TTM Q4FY24 (FY24).

Conclusions:

India has immense potential in improving its manufacturing sector with the right policies in place to not only become less import-dependent but also become one of the largest exporters, competing with even mighty China and becoming a real democratic alternative to China in terms of a global manufacturing hub. But for that, India also has to improve its mining & querying activities along with huge stress on innovation & productivity and lower cost of production. India needs proper labor & land reform and an appropriate indirect tax policy to boost manufacturing mass-employment.

India’s economic activities are under stress due to comparatively higher indirect taxes on goods & services. India’s GST and other indirect taxes are now the highest contributor of Federal revenue around Rs.14.80T followed by corporate/business tax Rs.10.22T and personal tax Rs.9.23T in FY24. India needs now a GST tax regime without frequent changes in rates and multiple slabs and simple forms.

As revenue revenue-neutral strategy, India should apply a 15% uniform GST rate across all goods and services including petroleum products. India’s CII has prescribed three slabs/rates for GST with the inclusion of petroleum products. The Indian government may further encourage a new personal income tax regime with some structural modifications and may even abolish the old tax regime from FY26.

In FY24, India’s total tax revenue was around Rs.55T against nominal GDP of around Rs.295T; i.e. almost 18.5%, which is at par with the global AE standard, despite only around 3% of people paying any personal income tax (despite heavy compliance tax network). This is because a vast majority of the population has very low income and need not pay any income tax at all. Also, there are various tax savings incentives, and thus government may streamline those incentives to collect a respectable income tax to reduce high GST/indirect taxes, which has also caused a higher cost of living over the past few years.

Although there is a rumor that from FY25, the Indian Federal Government may abolish the personal tax code and instead continue with direct/GST tax codes. However, the Government may abolish the old tax regime and keep the new tax regime with fewer tax slabs and without any tax deduction provisions related to investments.

But India also needs out-of-the-box ideas or monumental reforms in various aspects like labor & land reform (rather than a mere political narrative) for a developed economy by 2047-50 or even by 2100. India also has to strengthen institutional autonomy in the judiciary, press, election commission, competition commission, etc along with political funding and electoral process reform. India (Federal Government) now pays almost 45% of core tax revenue as interest on public debt and 35% on account of government salaries and pensions. Indian Federal & state combined public debt & liabilities (PDL) is now around INR 275T, approaching 100% of the country’s nominal GDP.

Although most of the Indian PDL is in LCU (local currency units-INR), the cycle of higher deficits, debt devaluation and subsequent higher borrowing costs/higher inflation is making India a high-cost economy. This along with the lack of adequate employment opportunities for India’s huge pool of educated youths over the last few decades may create social unrest in the country, if not properly handled by the policymakers. Thus Indian Federal government needs to give RBI a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability (like the US Fed). If India is not able to solve the massive unemployment/under-employment crisis in the coming days, the so-called demographic dividend may turn into a demographic nightmare.

Also, the Indian government may need a more robust personal tax collection system (like in the minimum payroll/social welfare taxes) along with non-strategic PSU disinvestments to fund modern social and traditional/transport infra in the country for ease of living. For this two main political parties (BJP and INC) should come into some bipartisan politics/economics supported by the corporate/business/ordinary public of the country.

Overall, despite incremental improvements in the last few decades, India is still far behind China in terms of infra (traditional, transport, and also social). Thus there is a huge scope for improvement for India’s ailing infra, especially railways and also education & healthcare to match with growing/huge demand for a huge/still growing population of almost 1.50B of the country.

India should have a natural economic growth of around 8% (real GDP) due to its large population and growing affluent middle class along with huge/growing government spending and service/IT/petroleum products exports. But India also needs to grow in double digits (at least 10-12%) in real terms keeping USDINR and core inflation at manageable levels for the next 15 years to be able to become a true $5T economy with inclusive growth; not exclusive/K-Shaped and jobless growths like at present.

India needs to put proper tax and policy reforms in place to encourage domestic manufacturing of quality goods for export so that it can compete with China and other Southeast Asian exports, which will eventually create mass employment (like in China). For all these, India needs lower borrowing costs for higher private and public/government capex to improve the overall supply capacity of the economy along with manufacturing boost to become a developed economy by 2050-2100.

Modi 3.0 has to take bold economic reform and improve the productivity of India, which is the ultimate. If the productivity of an economy does not improve in line with underlying economic growth (GDP) including average wage growth, then the economy will run too hot, and price stability (inflation) will be an eternal issue.

India’s Dalal Street may be now looking for RBI rate cuts along with targeted fiscal stimulus by Modi 3.0:

Thus looking ahead, despite the average total CPI being around +5.0% on average, RBI may go for rate cuts from Dec’24 as India’s average core CPI is now around +3.4%, while the average unemployment rate is around 8.0%. Although officially Modi government claims India’s unemployment rate is around 3.2% (??), perhaps at almost the lowest in G20 and the Indian economy is now at maximum employment amid the deluge of casual low-paid workers like SWIGY delivery boys. The Indian government is now pressuring almost all SMEs and even small business houses to include old employees with the PFS and thus showing millions of NFP employees for the last few months,

Indian Government/NSO should publish proper employment situation, core inflation, and retail sales data every month like in the US so that policymakers can make proper policy decisions for maximum employment and 3% price stability along with double-digit real GDP growth of at least around 10-12% for becoming the 3rd largest economy by 2050 in terms of real GDP at $5T.

As per Taylor’s rule (modified), India’s longer-run terminal/neutral RBI repo rate should be around 4.00-4.50% to balance price stability (core CPI around 3.0%), maximum employment (95% of labor force) and adequate economic activity (real GDP growths at least +6.0%).

As the Fed has already started the latest rate cut cycle of 275/250 bps rate cuts over the next several quarters (September 24-December’26-June’27), RBI has to follow the Fed to keep interest rate/bond yield differential and FX rate (USDINR).

RBI officially indicated a change of stance in the Oct’24 MPC meeting and had gone for a dovish hold. But RBI may start targeting core inflation rather than total inflation/CPI, and may officially begin targeting core CPI from Dec’24 or Apr’25 MPC (new FY26).

Thus RBI may start cutting rates by a -50 bps or -25 bps rate cut in Dec’24 and depending upon the actual/likely Fed move, RBI may also cut cumulatively 2.00-1.50% depending upon actual core inflation and Fed rate trajectory for a terminal repo neutral rate of 4.00-4.50% against Fed’s 3.00-2.75% by Dec’26.

Eventually, Nifty EPS growth will have to support at least fair valuation:

At around 24500 Nifty and 877 TTM EPS for Q2FY25, the current TTM Nifty PE is around 28, still far above bullish valuation zone 25. The average fair PE is around 22-20 against average Nifty EPS growth of 12%. At around 930 projected Nifty EPS for FY25 and reasonable fair PE of 22, the projected fair (intrinsic) value should be around 20450; the FY24 Nifty EPS was 855 vs 780 for FY23 and 725 in FY22; growing around 9% on average, while longer-term average growth around 12%.

Assuming 15% growth for FY26, the projected Nifty EPS maybe around 1069, and at 22 reasonable fair PE, the fair value may be around 23500; i.e. if Nifty consolidates around present levels of 23500 and again goes higher from 2025, we have to understand that Nifty will then began to discount the projected FY26 Nifty EPS, but still then will be susceptible for a healthy correction if quarterly report card continues to come subdued amid higher borrowing costs, higher banking NPA, tepid discretionary consumer spending, higher input costs and global trade and geopolitical tensions. Nifty EPS may not grow by the expected 15% even in FY26, if there is no major economic reform, especially in labor, land, and direct taxation.

India’s Nifty may have run too much ahead of its potential on Modi 3.0 optimism, but may now fall back to reality as Modinomics failed to boost corporate earnings meaningfully due to a lack of much-needed economic and policy reforms at the ground. In H1FY25, Nifty rallied almost 30% against the normal average run rate of 23% for the whole year. Also, despite the huge flow of black money, India’s discretionary consumer spending is under stress due to the high cost of living, elevated unemployment, and under-employment. Faulty & complex models of GST, high indirect taxations & tariffs, high energy, and business establishment costs, and higher input costs are affecting corporate earnings. India is also losing its competitiveness in the goods export market despite the advantage of relatively cheaper labor costs and devalued currency.

Also, India needs to invest much more in innovation to improve the productive capacity of the economy to be a developed economy with improved GDP/Capita and inclusive growth. Indian stock market is now losing the so-called EM scarcity and Modi premium due to extreme political/electoral funding corruption by almost all major political parties in the country. This along with Rabin Hood's Politics & policies (24/7 Helicopter Money) is causing a higher public deficit, higher public debt, and higher currency devaluation. There is no price stability and the lower middle class is in trouble to meet the higher cost of living, especially in Urban metro areas. This is affecting urban discretionary consumer spending and overall economic activity.

Market impact:

On Monday (2nd December), India’s Nifty 50 slumped in the early opening session due to subdued economic growth and Trump’s rhetorics of imposing 199% tariffs in BRICS nations including India as a ‘punishment’ for any potential plan to introduce BRICS currency and undercut the global hegemony of USD.

But by mid-Monday, Nifty recovered as the market may be still assuming the Q3FY25 GDP ‘shocker’ as an exception or transient; the Indian economy may soon revive to grow around 7% (if not 8%). Nifty recovered on hopes of an imminent rate cut by RBI as soon as on 6th December or Feb’24 with a dovish hold tone this week. RBI Governor Das may not hesitate to take ‘bold unexpected’ policy action to cut even 50 bps also respond to growing demand from North Block (Modi admin).

Although RBI rate cuts will be beneficial for the Indian economy and the stock market, banks & Financials may not be so much boosted as lower rates and lower spreads may be negative for their business/lending models; but at the same time lower borrowing costs might ensure lower NPAs. Also, a sudden/unexpected rate cut and shorting of huge USDINR by RBI may weaken INR against USD, which will be positive for export-savvy Nifty, although it may be devastating for the import-oriented Indian economy. USDINR may soon break 85 areas for 90-95 and even 100 by the next few years.

Technical trading levels: Nifty/India 50 Future/CFD

Whatever may be the fundamental narrative, technically Nifty Future/ India 50 CFD (24400) has to sustain over 24600 for any further rebound to 24775/24900-25200/254450* and further rally to 25650/26000-26200/26500 and 26650*/26800-27000/27200* in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 24550, Nifty/India 50 may again fall to 24150/24000-23800/23650 and further to 23400/23350 and 23100/23000-22850/22700 and 22450/22150-21250/21000 in the coming days.