Fed may pause in December as US labor market remains stable

·         On early Monday, Dow Future was buoyed by Chinese stimulus optimism, while Nasdaq slumped on talks of Chinese regulatory action on Nvidia’s alleged monopoly

·         Gold surged on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the fall of Syria’s Assad regime

·         Fed may pause in Dec’24 not only for stalled core disinflation and stable employment but also to analyze the impact of Trump’s policies on US price stability and employment

·         The uptick in the unemployment rate may be due to the uptick in multiple job holders than any layoffs; the 2024 average NFP job addition may come around +200K

Stimulus-addicted Wall Street has been in an early Santa mood for the last few days on hypes of dual stimulus; both monetary and fiscal. The market is now expecting synchronized global easing in 2025-26 by the Fed, PBOC, ECB, BOE, BOC, and even RBI along with Trump 2.0 fiscal stimulus of around $1T. The latest JOLTS hiring data may indicate a robust US labor market with a +200K NFP job addition for 2024 on average. Wall Street is also topping fresh life time highs almost every other day in hopes soft landing, with resilient economic activity without denting the labor/job market too much even after almost restoring price stability, while almost all other major economies are now facing a hard landing, stagflation and even deflation. Techs are also helping Wall Street in hopes of a less hawkish China Cold War policy under Trump 2.0, being managed by Musk & Company.

Wall Street Futures were also buoyed by hopes & hypes of an imminent Gaza war ceasefire as Hamas confirmed the resumption of ceasefire talks, while the US warned Israel shouldn’t blow ‘small’ Lebanon ceasefire violations out of proportion and resume an all-out war. But Wall Street is also wobbling on fading hopes of a Fed rate cut on 18th December.

Now, Fed Chair Powell and also most of the other influential Fed policymakers are preparing the market for a pause for at least January-Feduary’25 as the last mile of core disinflation almost stalled, while the US labor/job market remains robust along with resilient economic activities and above-trend real GDP growth amid increasing population/immigrants. Over and above all, the Fed also needs to assess Trump 2.0 actual policies on the economy, especially tariffs and immigration on inflation/labor market/employment situation.

On Friday (1st Nov’24), the focus of the market was on the NFP/BLS job report for November’24, which may help the Fed to make a firm decision about any rate cuts at the 18th December FOMC meeting. Fed will also consider the core CPI and PPI inflation report to be released next week (blackout period). Also, the Fed will consider overall average data for at least the past three/six months and the outlook thereof before any policy decision rather than only one/two months of economic data.

On Friday, the latest BLS establishment survey flash data (seasonally adjusted) shows that the U.S. economy (Private + Public/Government sector) added +227K Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) jobs in November’24 against +36K sequentially (m/m); +182K yearly (y/y), higher than the median market expectations of +220K. In November’24, there was the lowest addition of US NFP job additions since at least Feb’19 (not considering COVID times low) amid temporary disruptions caused by Boeing union strike, dual cyclones (Helene and Milton), and also the US Presidential election. The US NFP employment covers public (government) and private sector employees/jobs excluding the farming/agri industry.

After the latest revisions (without considering the preliminary NFP benchmark revision published on 21st Aug 24), the 3M/6M rolling average (6MRA) of US NFP job additions was around +173K and +143K in November’24. Also after the latest revisions, the 2024 (MTD) average of US NFP payroll job addition was around +180K against +170K in the prior report; +251K in 2023, and +377K in 2022. As per trend and other data, including JOLTS, the December NFP payroll job addition may come to around 225K for an overall +200K average for 2024.

Although, the Fed’s preference was around +200K in the pre-COVID era; considering a higher labor force amid higher immigration and a higher working-age population, the Fed may now prefer +225K average run rate of NFP Payroll job addition for its maximum employment mandate, while the red line may be +175K (against pre-COVID levels of +150K).

On Friday, the BLS flash data also shows the U.S. private sector (only private establishment/business employees) added +194K payroll jobs in November’24 against a deduction of around -2K sequentially (m/m) and +98K yearly (y/y), lower than the market expectations of +205K, and the ADP figure +146K (released Wednesday). The Oct’24 US Private Payroll job contraction of -2K was also the lowest and 1st contraction since Dec’20 post-COVID disruption (-236k).

After Oct’24 flash data and revisions, the 2024 (YTM) average of US private payroll job addition was around +143K against the 2023 average of +192K, the 2022 average of +352K, and the 2021 average of +571K. On the other side, the 2024 (YTM) average of ADP private payroll addition was around +155K in November’24; and +209K in 2023. The 3M rolling average of US BLS/NFP job addition is now around +138K vs +163K  in the ADP survey against +192K vs +209K in 2022.

The divergence (difference) between NFP and ADP private payroll addition numbers is now gradually reducing amid the increasing adoption of ADP payroll processing software in private establishments. However, a nominal number of private employees remains around 3K higher in BLS/NFP data than ADP as all private business firms/establishments are not using ADP payroll processing software. Also, the survey periods of ADP and BLS NFP periods are different.

On Friday, the BLS Establishment survey flash data also shows the Government payroll, i.e., employment in Federal, state, and local governments added around +33K jobs in November’24 against +38K addition sequentially (m/m); +30K yearly (y/y), and higher than the market expectations of +17K. After the latest revision, the 2024 (YTM) average for the US government payroll was around +38K against +59K in 2023, +25K in 2022, and +33K in 2021. The 6M rolling average of US NFP government job addition is now around +35K, almost the same as 3M.

 

 

Overall, US NFP Payroll employment is now around 94.3% on an average vs 92,% pre-COVID (Dec’19), private employment 80.4% vs 78.4%, and government employment 13.9% vs 13.8%.

In November’24, the US NFP payroll was boosted by job gains in private education & health services, leisure  & hospitality, government, professional & business services, manufacturing, construction,  financial activities, wholesale trade, mining & logging, and information (tech) to some extent, while dragged retail trade, and utilities slightly.

As per BLS, the US private sector added +54K jobs in health care, +53K in leisure and hospitality, and +19K jobs in social assistance, while the government/public sector added +33K jobs in November’24. Also, employment increased in transportation equipment manufacturing (+32K), reflecting the return of workers who were on strike.

On the other hand, retail trade lost -28K jobs and employment showed little change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial; professional, and business services.

As per ADP, the service-producing sector added +140K jobs in November led by education/health services (+50K); trade/transportation/utilities (+28K); professional/business services (18K); leisure/hospitality (+15K); financial activities (+5K) and information (+4K). The goods-producing sector added +6K jobs, of which +30K in construction and +2K in natural resources/mining while manufacturing shed -26K jobs.

The ADP said:

·         While overall growth for the month was healthy, industry performance was mixed

·         Manufacturing was the weakest we've seen since spring

·         Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft

Overall, for the last six months, private education & healthcare services were the biggest employers for the US economy, followed by government and leisure & hospitality (travel/tourism & hotels), construction, transportation & warehousing, wholesale trade, financial activities, while dragged by professional & business services, manufacturing, and information/techs (due to mainly AI disruption) and retail sales (change of business model for FMCG goods from traditional physical super store to instant online delivery).

Housing/construction is always a bright spot for the US economy, where present supply is lower than demand due to the increasing population/immigrants. The US is a service-heavy economy and for the last few years not been able to compete with China, the undisputed global leader in manufacturing not only consumer durable goods but also EV/Cars, and AI chips, and even has growing footprints in civilian and military airplanes/jets.

The U.S. economy is primarily a service sector-oriented economy (unlike China) and the service sector is the biggest contributor to the economy, but that too is significantly dependent on millions of immigrants, students, patients, and tourists from developing countries like India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other major South Asian/American/African countries and even China due to better standard of living, better democracy (freedom of speech/after speech), better pay, lower cost of living (price stability) and also currency leverage (USD being the ‘king’). But in the last few months, AI disruption may be also cutting human jobs in the tech industry.

The US, the world’s largest economy is the land of immigrant talents and innovation, unlike many other Western countries and Japan, suffering from demographic headwinds (ageing population/workforce). The demand for US private education and healthcare is huge among not only rich Americans but also foreigners, especially from developing countries like India, Bangladesh, and even China; US institutions also provide 100% scholarships and relocation expenses to attract talent from all over the world, especially from friendlier, but poor counties like India.

Also, big corporate families from various developing countries like India usually send their children for education in the US to not only earn respectable degrees from world renewed institutions but also for business working as children of almost all big business houses in the world including the US/UK/EU are also studying in those big US educational schools/colleges/universities/ professional institutes. This is to make business deal making easier in future.

The US is also a manufacturing powerhouse in airplanes (civilian & military), high-end AI chips, etc, where China is still behind. The US is the destination land of bright immigrants and innovation with its relatively soft immigration policies. The US also needs a significant number of skilled, semi-skilled immigrants as prospective workers/labor force to make the overall labor market in Goldilocks state to ensure price stability. In the US, relatively liberal immigration policies and lower unemployment than most of the G7 countries are also ensuring moderate US economic growth rather than a stagflation/deflation-like economic situation in almost all other G7 countries. The US is a land of immigrants & equal opportunities. Even an Asian-American/Indian-American may be the CEO of an American MNC giant like Google or become a VP or even President of the US, which is unthinkable in India, the biggest democracy in the world.

As per the latest revision in the establishment survey, the change in total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment for September was revised by +32K to +255K, and the change for October was revised by +24K to +36K. With these revisions, NFP employment in the last two months combined was up by +56K than previously reported (against a 2M negative revision of -122K in the last report).

With the latest monthly revisions, the US economy added an average of around +180K payroll jobs (NFP) in 2024 (YTM) against the pre-COVID (2015-19) long-term average of +187K, and the Fed’s goldilocks rate around +200K (175-225K), to keep an overall unemployment rate below 4.5%, which is Fed red line (long term sustainable unemployment rate keeping average core inflation around +2.0% as price stability). Overall, the 2024 average NFP job additions should be around +200K.

The divergence between NFP and ADP private payroll monthly job addition numbers was around -12K in November’24 (YTM-2024) against -30K in 2023; i.e. decreasing amid the increasing adoption of real-time ADP payroll processing software in private establishments. But, overall, a nominal number of US NFP Private Payroll employees is still higher by around 3000K in the BLS survey than ADP at present on an average against +5000K in pre-COVID times.

In both the BLS establishment survey and the ADP private payroll survey, individuals who hold multiple payroll jobs are usually counted multiple times based on surveys/payroll processing software. The BLS survey collects data from business establishments and counts the number of employees on their payroll, regardless of whether they have one or multiple jobs. If someone holds multiple jobs and one of those jobs uses ADP for payroll processing, only the primary job with ADP would be counted in the survey; if the multiple jobs are in another company, that does not use ADP payroll software/system, he will be not counted twice. This also explains partly about frequent divergence between ADP and BLS/EST surveys. Additionally, the BLS EST survey samples a much larger number of establishments, around one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs, compared to the limited ADP survey which is based on data from ADP's client companies, using ADP payroll processing software/system.

The ADP Report is based on the actual anonymized and aggregated payroll data of more than 25 million U.S. employees. The BLS survey samples a much larger number of establishments, around one-third of all nonfarm payroll jobs, compared to the ADP survey which is based on data from ADP's client companies, using ADP payroll processing software/system only. The BLS surveys about 141K businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486K individual work sites, to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls under the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program.

The larger sample size of the BLS survey allows it to provide a more comprehensive and accurate representation of the overall employment situation in the US. Furthermore, the BLS survey uses more rigorous statistical methods and adjustments to account for seasonal variations, business births/deaths, and other factors that can impact population/labor force and employment data. This helps the BLS survey provide a more reliable and consistent measure of nonfarm (NFP) payroll employment than ADP, but ADP is also providing almost real-time data.

The BLS survey is based on a sample of business establishments, while the ADP survey is based on payroll data from businesses that use ADP for payroll processing. Differences in sampling methods, sample sizes, survey periods and data collection techniques can lead to variations in the reported figures. The BLS establishment survey and the ADP private payroll survey are conducted at different times of the month, which can also contribute to variations in the reported figures.

But now after too many large revisions for the last few years and the Oct’24 huge divergence due to dual cycles, the Boeing strike, and the US election, it seems that ADP NFP payroll data may be more reliable than BLS. In any way, the BLS/US government should ensure proper employment surveys using real-time payroll processing software or some other credible digital method in this digital age (rather than using the old-fashioned unreliable/unverified telephonic survey) for the largest economy and most importantly central bank (Fed) in the world.

The Fed is also often very confused about US BLS data, especially for employment situations. Fed has to make contradictory/unexpected policy decisions and even make policy errors or often find it behind the curve for unusually large revisions even after one year. The BLS should ensure employment data is final and locked after 2 months, not 12 months to avoid wild swing and make Fed’s job more difficult.

On Friday, the BLS household (HH) survey data indicated the nominal number of the US civilian non-institutional population (>16 years of age) increased by +174K to 269463K in Novermber’24, while the labor force decreased by -193K to 168286K. The labor force participation rate was 62.5% vs 62.6% sequentially and against the pre-COVID average participation rate of around 63.1%; while 2006 levels was around 66.4% (pre-GFC days).

The current 2024-YTM of labor force addition was around +76K against the Non-Institutional Civilian population (working age above 16-yrs) growth of +134K, while the labor force participation rate at 62.6%.

As per the BLS Household (HH) survey, the U.S. economy has deducted -355K employed persons in Oct’24, against the deduction of -368K sequentially (m/m) and the addition of +586K yearly (y/y). The U.S. has 161141K employed persons in November’24. As per the BLS household survey, the average number of addition of employed persons for 2024 (YTM) was -4K in November’24 against the 2023 average of +157K, the 2022 average of +265K, and the long-term pre-COVID average of +178K. There may be huge positive annual revisions in December 24 data, so the overall 2024 average of addition comes around +200K in 2024.

The Fed may also prefer around +200K (175-225K) average additions of US employed persons as a sustainable long-term trend rate to achieve/sustain maximum employment.

The US BLS HH survey includes non-farm payroll (NFP) employees (Private + Public/Govt) and self-employed persons (including professionals, contractors, and agri workers). As per Household survey data, the nominal number of unemployed persons increased by +162K to 7145K in November 24 against 6983K sequentially (m/m) and 6261K yearly (y/y). In November’24, the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1 % sequentially (m/m), 3.7% yearly (y/y), and lower than the market expectations of 4.1%.

The 2024 (YTM) average unemployment rate was 4.0% in November’24 and against the 2023 average rate of 3.6%; the current 3M/6M rolling average of the unemployment rate was 4.1% and 4.2%, still below the Fed’s 4.5% red line. Fed’s minimum unemployment may be around 3.5% on a durable basis; i.e. 96.5% employment rate, which is now around 96.0% in YTM-2024. Fed also regarded a 4.0% average as a sustainable longer-term unemployment rate; i.e. 96% employment rate as the maximum for the Goldilocks nature of the US economy.

 

Further fine prints of BLS H/H survey data indicate the US NFP (Payroll) employment (Private + Public) is now around 89.1% and the rest self-employed + agri workers.

Overall, non-agri self-employment is now around 5.5%, while agri employment is around 1.4% and part-time employment 16.7%.

Multiple jobholders, higher unemployment rate, and frequent divergence between BLS EST Payroll and HH surveys:

For the last few months, the monthly addition of employed persons and employees has been diverging, leading to an edging up of the headline unemployment rate because of an increasing number of multiple job holders.

Fine details of the US NFP/BLS job report indicate YTD-2024 average non-agri/non-firm (NFP) payroll employees (PVT+GOVT) were around 156066K in the establishment survey against 149683K in the household survey. The average divergence/difference between these two surveys (BLS establishment and household) was around +6382K for 2024 (YTM); If we deduct the number of NFP employees as per the BLS establishment survey and that of the household survey, we may have an idea of multiple job holders (employees under non-agri payroll), which is almost equivalent to this divergence. Overall, as per BLS seasonally adjusted data, now almost 4.4% of employed persons are multiple jobholders in 2024 (YTM) against 3.6% in 2023, 3.3% in 2022, and 3.1% in 2021.

The increasing number of multiple job holders over the years may be explained by:

·         People may be taking additional full-time/part-time jobs (WFH) to meet the increasing cost of living (still 20% higher inflation than pre-COVID times)

·         Fear of sudden layoffs/salary cuts during any financial crisis (like COVID, 2007 GFC)

·         The flexibility of WFH, higher productivity for both employees and employers (part-time/freelancers may do the same work more efficiently at lower pay than regular full-time employees),

·         Sometimes lack of experienced workers for a specifically required skill; a flexible mix of WFH/WFO (remote/onsite) may be more positive for overall labor productivity and lower inflation.

The increasing number of multiple job holders may be the reason behind a drop in the total number of employed persons despite an increase in headline NFP job/employee numbers in the last few months. The US BLS NFP/Establishment survey may count multiple jobs multiple times (if a person is doing two or more multiple payroll jobs at a time in WFH/remote mode or even physically in two/three shifts), while the BLS Household survey does count such multiple job holders as one employed person. The BLS Household survey includes payroll employees and self-employed persons such as professionals, gig workers/freelancers, contractors, and also agricultural workers.

In the Household survey, individuals are counted only once, even if they have more than one job (based on unverified answers across 60K household samples). In the establishment survey, employees working at more than one contractual payroll job are counted separately for each payroll. Thus often there are divergences between the number of employees and employed person additions in a month between these two BLS surveys (Establishment and Household).

The U.S. private Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) was around $35.61 in November’24 vs $35.48 sequentially (+0.4%) and $34.23 yearly (+4.0%); i.e. the U.S. AHE grew +4.0% yearly in November’24, above the market expectations of +3.9% (y/y) and continues to be the highest in five months. Fed may be looking for an average annual growth rate of AHE around 3.00% on average against its +2.0% price stability (inflation) targets (as per the pre-COVID trend) so that there is some real wage growth, but may not cause wage inflation spiral. The average AHE growth for 2024 (YTM) was around +4.0% against +4.5% in 2023.

On a sequential (m/m) basis, the AHE grew by +0.4% in Sep’24 against +0.4% in the previous month, and above the market expectations of +0.3% gain. The Fed needs an average sequential AHE growth of around +0.2% consistently for its price stability targets; while the 2024 average was around +0.3%, almost the same in 2023.

The Average Weekly Hours (AWH) for all employees on U.S. nonfarm payroll was edged up to 34.3 hours in November’24 from 34.2 hours sequentially (m/m), 34.4 hours yearly (y/y), and in line with the market expectations of 34.3 hours. Average Weekly Earnings (AWE=AWE*AWH) edged up +0.7% to $1221.42 in November’24 from $1213.42 sequentially, while increasing +4.0% yearly from $1177.51. This translates to average monthly earnings (AME) of around $4885.69 in November’24 against $4853.66 sequentially (+0.7%) and $4710.85 yearly (+3.7%); i.e. the US AME grew +0.7% sequentially (m/m) and +3.7% yearly (y/y) in Oct’24.

The US compensation (wage+ bonus) growth was +4.6% vs total CPI/inflation rate +2.3%; i.e. real wage growth was around +2.3% in Dec’2019 (pre-COVID). Now in October’24, the US wage growth was around +5.6% against headline inflation +2.6%; i.e. the real wage growth was around +3.0%. The Fed needs to keep average real wage growth around 2.0-2.5% to maintain the goldilocks nature of the US economy.

The US needs proper fiscal stimulus/policy in place to deal with a higher number of immigrants and fresh job creations with decent real wage growths. Overall U.S. minimum/average NFP real wage growth is now also turning positive as inflation is falling. Also, data shows that immigrants are now getting more lower-end jobs (minimum pay) than Native Americans. Although this may be due to a lack of Native Americans, willing to work at minimum pay lower-end jobs, comparatively lower wages for immigrants for ordinary jobs is also helping the Fed in maintaining price stability.

 

 

In 2022-23, after all types of COVID era restrictions were withdrawn, there was a flood of legal/illegal immigrants; i.e. supply of more labor force and the previous imbalance between demand and supply got balanced to some extent, resulting in the softening of wage pressure, labor market and also inflation subsequently. Trump is against not only illegal imitation but also legal immigration in general. Trump prefers only skill-based legal immigration. Trump also threatened deportations of all illegal and even some types of legal/semi-legal immigrants, polluting the US society. This may affect the US labor market, making it tighter, especially for low-end jobs.

Thus Fed may pause in December 24 as it needs time to evaluate Trump’s actual tariffs and immigration policies on the US economy as it may adversely affect both inflation and employment. The overall US job/labor market remains in a Goldilocks state. Although the US labor/job market has been cooled from a very hot state in 2022-2023 and Q1CY24, the overall situation is now Goldilocks in nature and in line with pre-COVID times; but overall wage growth is still elevated and the labor market is still robust despite increasing number of immigrants/ potential workers and limited fresh jobs amid increasing AI disruptions and decreasing manufacturing sector.

In summary, the overall US labor market may be now termed as Goldilocks rather than too soft or recessionary despite an elevated unemployment rate of around 4.1% on average. There is equivalent growth in the number of multiple job holders and also labor force/job aspirants amid a rising working population/immigrants. Overall, there are still not any widespread layoffs and the uptick in unemployment number is mainly due to a higher number of multiple job holders and laborers/job aspirants/immigrants, along with limited available new job openings.

Overall, even after cooling down in the last few months, the US labor/job market is still robust or now in Goldilocks mode despite elevated unemployment numbers along with the terrible addition of several employed persons. Elevated unemployment numbers may be due to the increasing number of multiple jobholders, and labor force/job aspirants rather than widespread layoffs. But at the same time, available open new jobs are declining due to various structural issues in the US; it’s not only to present higher borrowing costs or Fed stance.

Bottom line:

The Fed may be now preparing the market for a potential pause on 18th December’24 as US core disinflation almost stalled, while the labor market remains robust.

Looking ahead, the focus of the market will be on the Nov’24 US NFP/BLS job report and also the core CPI inflation report; if there is no meaningful rise in the unemployment rate and an unusual drop in core CPI inflation, the Fed may pause on 18th Dec’24. Although the Fed generally talks about 2.0% PCE inflation as a price stability target, in reality, it will maintain 1.5% core/total PCE inflation and 2.3% core/total CPI inflation; i.e. around 1.9% average inflation (PCE+CPI) targets, Congress has entrusted along with maximum employment 96.0-95.5% of the labor force; i.e. 4.0-3.5% headline unemployment rate. Fed will now try to bring down average core inflation from around 3.0% to 2.5% by keeping the unemployment rate at least around 4.0% by Dec’25 and then 2.0% core inflation and 3.5% unemployment rate by Dec’26 to achieve its mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

Market Impact:

On early Monday, Wall Street Futures recovered on China stimulus; gold also surged as USD was buoyed by the Chinese stimulus plan. Also escalated geo-political tensions over Syria helped as President Assad sought safety in Russia following his displacement from his country's leadership when insurgent forces made significant advances into the nation's capital Damascus. Israel and US/NATO also intensified attacks on ISIS to control Syria and create a favorable regime. Also overall, the Syrian situation may force Iran, and Hamas to seek the much-awaited Gaza war ceasefire even before Trump takes charge of the White House on 20th Januaty’24.

Weekly-Technical trading levels: DJ-30, NQ-100, SPX-500, Gold and BTCUSD

Looking ahead, whatever the fundamental narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 45100) now has to sustain over 45500 for any further rally to 45800/46000-46200/46400 and 46800/47000-47500/48000 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 45450/45200, DJ-30 may again fall to 45000/44750-44650/44200, DJ-30 may again fall to 43900/43300-42600/41600 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (21450) has to sustain over 21200 for a further boost to 21500 and further to 21700/21900-22050/22500 and even 21450 levels in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 21150, NQ-100 may again fall to 20950/20850-20500/20300 and 20000/19800-19650/19350 in the coming days.

Technically, SPX-500 (CMP: 6050), now has to sustain over 6100 for any further rally to 6150/6200-6350/6500 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 6075/6050 may again fall to 6000/5950-5900/5850 and 5675/5600-5550/5500 in the coming days.

Also, technically Gold (CMP: 2650) has to sustain over 2660-2680 for a recovery to 2700-2725 and further 2735/2750-2775/2795 and 2815 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 2655-2630 may again fall to 2605/2600 and 2590/2565 and further fall to 2550/2500-2470/2450 in the coming days (depending upon Fed rate cuts, Gaza/Ukraine war trajectory); Gold surged almost 75% in the last one year since Gaza war started back in October’23. Now it may retrace to $2100 levels if Trump indeed can mediate both Gaza and Ukraine war ceasefire by early 2025.