In the week ahead: U.S. Core PCE Price Index, BOJ Interest Rates, Non-Farm Payrolls

The EUR/USD pair moved lower on Friday, ending the week down 0.32% on the iForex platform. The Euro’s weakness came as the US Dollar regained strength amid renewed hopes for progress in trade relations between the United States and China.

Investor sentiment was buoyed by signs that China may be softening its trade stance. According to a Bloomberg report on Thursday, Beijing is considering suspending a 125% tariff on US imports of medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals, fueling optimism that tensions between the two economic giants could ease.

Adding to the optimism, US President Donald Trump shared a positive outlook earlier in the week, stating that “discussions with Beijing are going well” and expressing confidence that a deal could be reached.

On the monetary policy front, concerns are mounting over the potential impact of US policy uncertainty on the domestic economy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned last week that business leaders are preparing for possible job cuts if the current uncertainty continues. While Kashkari noted that layoffs have not yet begun, he emphasized the increasing risk to employment.

Looking ahead to this week, market participants are closely watching key US economic data releases, including the March JOLTS report, the advance estimate of Q1 2025 GDP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and April’s Nonfarm Payrolls.

Bitcoin extended gains on Friday, buoyed by a broader rally in risk assets following indications that U.S. President Donald Trump may be softening his approach to trade tariffs. The cryptocurrency experienced a week with major gains as it managed to rise more than 11%, ending the week above the level of $94,500.

The upward move on Friday came in the wake of comments from President Trump, who appeared to backtrack on previous threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He also hinted at potential relief on tariffs imposed on China, fueling investor optimism.

Additionally, reports suggested that the U.S. and Japan are preparing for a new round of tariff negotiations set for April 30 to May 2.

Given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiment, the mixed signals prompted a more cautious tone in crypto markets.

In a notable revision to its long-term forecast, ARK Invest now sees Bitcoin reaching up to $2.4 million by 2030—an increase of 60% from its January 2024 projection.

Oil prices edged higher on Friday but closed last week with losses, as market sentiment remained weighed down by oversupply concerns and ongoing ambiguity surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.

On Friday, China announced tariff exemptions for select U.S. imports, suggesting a possible thaw in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. However, hopes for progress were tempered after Beijing refuted President Donald Trump's claims that formal negotiations were underway.

Earlier this month, oil prices tumbled to four-year lows amid fears that escalating tariffs could dent global demand. With demand growth at risk from a weakening global economy, analysts now warn that the bigger concern may be rising supply.

Several OPEC+ members have indicated that the group could accelerate output increases for a second consecutive month in June, according to Reuters. Additionally, a potential resolution to the war in Ukraine may further boost global supply by facilitating more Russian crude exports.

Wall Street ended the week on a strong note, with technology shares driving gains across major indexes. The US Tech 100 rose more than 6% for the week, supported by upbeat earnings and improved investor sentiment.

The rally was fueled in part by Alphabet, which jumped nearly 1.5% after surpassing profit expectations and reaffirming its commitment to AI investments. Investors responded positively to earnings reports, though caution remains due to ongoing trade uncertainties.

Meanwhile, President Trump claimed in a recent interview that trade negotiations with China were underway and that President Xi had contacted him. However, Chinese officials denied any such talks were taking place. These conflicting statements continue to create volatility in the market, especially in sectors sensitive to global trade developments.

Looking ahead, the rebound in U.S. stocks faces a key test as a heavy earnings calendar unfolds. Tech giants Apple and Microsoft are set to report results, alongside Amazon and Meta Platforms. These companies — part of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" — have experienced mixed performance in 2025 after two years of outsized gains.

With uncertainty still looming over trade policy and the direction of monetary policy, the tech sector and broader equity markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to both earnings outcomes and macroeconomic indicators in the days ahead.