Apr

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trump’s Speech At The White House

02/04/2025 - 07:27 UTC

After experiencing minor gains in the past two sessions, the dollar index remained stable during Asian trading on Wednesday. Market attention was primarily directed towards President Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs against major U.S. trading partners and his proposal for universal tariffs on all U.S. imports. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that Trump intends to implement the highest possible tariffs, with the possibility of reduction if targeted nations decrease their tariffs on U.S. goods. Additionally, reports indicate a potential 20% tariff on all U.S. imports. Trump is expected to disclose his tariff policies at 4:00 PM Eastern Time (8:00 PM Greenwich Mean Time).

The JOLTS report for February showed a decrease in job openings to 7.568 million, below previous levels and forecasts, and a significant 877,000 fewer openings year-over-year. Adding to the unease, the ISM Manufacturing Index unexpectedly contracted in March, falling to a four-month low of 49.0. On the earnings front, Conagra Brands, Tilray, Walgreens Boots and Delta Airlines are due to release their quarterly reports this week.

The Australian dollar outperformed other Asian currencies on Wednesday, with AUD/USD increasing for a second consecutive session. This rise was fueled by surprisingly strong Australian building approvals data for February and comments from Assistant RBA Governor Christopher Kent indicating a slight increase in the central bank's overnight market operations repo rate.

Despite cautious sentiment surrounding upcoming tariff announcements from President Trump, Wall Street recovered some losses and closed higher on Tuesday, driven by a surge in tech stocks. By the close, the US 500 gained 0.85%, and the US tech 100 climbed 1.48%. Economic concerns grew as the labor market displayed signs of cooling before Friday's key nonfarm payrolls data. Leading a broader tech sector rally, Tesla Inc shares rose by 3% on Wednesday, the day before its first-quarter delivery update. Investors anticipate weaker delivery numbers from the electric vehicle manufacturer due to increased competition and softening demand. Notably, CEO Elon Musk's political involvement, particularly within the Trump administration, is also seen as negatively impacting demand. According to reports, while some of the expected softness is due to customers awaiting Model Y updates and a new, lower-cost model slated for a summer launch, anti-Musk sentiment and brand issues are significant contributors to the anticipated weak first-quarter delivery figures.

Following a significant surge on Monday, oil prices experienced a slight dip on Tuesday. Both WTI and Brent crude benchmarks saw minor declines of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, as traders became more cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's anticipated announcement on increased trade tariffs later in the day. Additionally, the market was looking ahead to a meeting of OPEC+ later in the week, where reports suggested the cartel might consider further increasing production.

On Wednesday, attention will center on President Trump's White House press conference regarding tariff policies designed to restructure U.S. trade relations. Looking ahead, the week's economic calendar will draw significant attention, featuring key U.S. releases such as ISM Services PMI, Non-Farm Payrolls, and the unemployment rate. Additionally, markets will closely watch JOLTS Job Openings and U.S. Average Hourly Earnings, which could also trigger price action. Finally, Fed Chairman Powell's speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Annual Conference will be a focal point.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD remained within familiar ranges on Tuesday, hovering near the 1.0800 level as investors awaited details on U.S. President Donald Trump’s long-anticipated "reciprocal" tariff package. The announcement is expected on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. However, uncertainty surrounds the specifics of Trump's tariff proposals, which have seen multiple revisions and delays since he took office.

European inflation data for March came in largely as expected, offering little surprise to investors. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data painted a bleaker picture, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI for March dropping sharply to 49.0 from February’s 50.3. This decline, deeper than the forecasted 49.5, signals contraction in the manufacturing sector as businesses brace for potential tariff repercussions. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index also registered a notable decline, falling to a two-year low of 45.2.

While European economic data remains relatively low-impact for the rest of the week, traders are expected to focus on market reactions to Trump’s tariff announcement. Additionally, attention will shift to Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide crucial insights into the state of the labor market amid escalating trade tensions.

Gold

Gold prices retreated on Tuesday as traders locked in profits ahead of the April 2 Liberation Day in the U.S., during which President Donald Trump is expected to unveil additional tariffs aimed at addressing trade imbalances.

Despite continued uncertainty regarding the scope of the impending tariffs, gold’s recent rally stalled on Tuesday as traders exercised caution.

Meanwhile, the labor market remains resilient, as the U.S. Department of Labor reported a decline in job openings, reinforcing underlying employment strength.

Looking ahead, this week’s economic calendar includes the ISM Services PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. These events will be closely watched for further insights into the economic landscape and potential monetary policy adjustments.

WTI Oil

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday as traders prepared for U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, a move that could escalate global trade tensions.

However, concerns over supply disruptions helped limit losses, as Trump threatened secondary tariffs on Russian oil and potential military action against Iran.

Adding to supply concerns, Russia ordered Kazakhstan’s main oil export terminal to close two of its three moorings, exacerbating a dispute between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ over excess production. As a result, Kazakhstan may be forced to cut oil output, with repair work at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal expected to take over a month, according to industry sources.

The market will closely monitor the April 5 OPEC+ ministerial committee meeting, where sources indicate the group is likely to proceed with a planned production hike of 135,000 barrels per day in May, following a similar increase in April.

US Tech 100

The US Tech 100 advanced on Tuesday, paring earlier losses as technology stocks surged, despite overall caution in risk assets ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.

President Donald Trump is set to impose reciprocal tariffs on a broad range of trading partners starting April 2, with immediate implementation, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Tuesday.

Signs of economic strain emerged ahead of Friday’s key nonfarm payrolls report. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings dipped to 7.568 million in February, down from a revised 7.762 million, missing the consensus forecast of 7.69 million. Over the past year, job openings have declined by 877,000, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Tesla Inc. led the tech sector higher, rising by over 3% ahead of its Q1 delivery update. Investors anticipate weaker delivery numbers due to rising competition and slowing demand, which has been exacerbated by CEO Elon Musk’s political ties to the Trump administration.

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trump’s Speech At The White House

EUR/USD

Gold

WTI Oil

US Tech 100

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